Incumbents in the 4th Judicial Circuit might in trouble.
A University of North Florida poll released this morning shows State Attorney Angela Corey and Public Defender Matt Shirk behind by double-digits in their races against Melissa Nelson and Charles Cofer, respectively.
The school’s Public Opinion Research Lab conducted the poll last week with 467 Republicans likely to vote in the Aug. 30 primary.
In the state attorney’s race, Nelson led with 34 percent of the vote. Corey came in at 24 percent, while Wes White garnered 8 percent. The remaining 35 percent of voters were undecided.
The Corey campaign countered with a poll of its own.
Conducted June 7-9 of 300 likely Republican primary voters, the McLaughlin & Associates query showed Corey up double digits over Nelson, 43 percent to 26 percent.
The margin of error was plus or minus 5.7 percentage points. The campaign did not provide the full poll.
In that poll, White took in 14 percent while just 17 percent were undecided.
Cathleen Murphy, Corey campaign spokeswoman, said UNF’s lab continues “to get the big races wrong.”
“While we appreciate the work of PORL, we prefer to leave polling to the experts,” said Murphy in an email.
In response to the UNF poll, Nelson spokesman Brian Hughes on Wednesday said polls aren’t what drive the Nelson campaign, except to “win the only poll that really matters.”
In the public defender’s race, retired Duval County judge Charles Cofer took in 35 percent of the vote while Shirk had 17 percent. The other 48 percent were undecided.
The poll for both races had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
“It’s very encouraging,” said Cofer on Wednesday morning, “but there is still a lot of work to be done … we’re not taking anything for granted.”
A text message to Shirk on Wednesday morning seeking comment was not returned.
What was deemed to be potentially detrimental to the challengers also might end up being a boost, according to the poll.
Both races are closed primaries, as write-in candidates filed to seal the vote for only Republican voters.
However, the UNF poll sampled how Democrats and Independents would have voted and found the incumbents fared better than in the closed primary.
Of the 280 likely non-Republican voters, Nelson pulled in 27 percent to Corey’s 21 percent. Shirk remained steady at 17 percent, while Cofer was at 32. There was no margin of error listed for the sampling.
Michael Binder, the lab’s faculty director, said typically polls his shop produces turn out some interesting results. These, however, he called downright surprising.
Binder said a poll he saw conducted a week prior to the June 27-30 UNF study showed similar trends, but he didn’t believe them fully until results came through in the school’s research.
He chalks up Corey’s numbers to years of controversy, from how she handled high-profile cases to criticisms about prosecution of juveniles.
A Florida Times-Union story last week about a former prosecutor who claimed Corey’s office was pressuring employees to support her re-election campaign ran during the latter parts of when the poll was conducted.
“I think it’s all just kind of a combined sum total over the last couple of months and years,” Binder said of Corey’s numbers.
He credited Nelson, who has been able to gain support against Corey in a short time, while White hasn’t been able to.
The public defender’s race has a similar storyline, said Binder.
Shirk has had his share of public scrutiny, ranging from indiscretions with female employees to deleted public records.
A grand jury criticized him and a June ruling by the Florida Commission on Ethics found probable cause he misused his position, thrusting negativity back into the limelight.
Cofer benefits from his time on the bench and “his name is not Matt Shirk,” said Binder.
There was another part of the UNF poll that surprised Binder.
A racial breakdown showed African-Americans polled favored Corey over Nelson (32 percent to 23 percent) and Cofer over Shirk, albeit a slim margin (26 percent to 23 percent).
Binder said he was “extraordinarily surprised” by how well Corey polled with blacks compared to conservative Republicans.
He suggests her “tough on crime” approach resonates with those in areas where crime rates have been higher and is the biggest concern in those neighborhoods.
She’s done well with the African-American communities in past elections, he said.
“It’s certainly possible they feel aligned with her,” said Binder.
Despite the snapshot of the races today, there are still large unknowns — mainly the key undecided voters.
In the state attorney race, 35 percent of Republicans said they didn’t know who for whom they will vote. In the public defender race it was even more at 48 percent.
Binder said to reverse the momentum such polls are showing, the incumbents need to proactively stump in the community at civic functions and other events tailored to letting them lay out their stories and records themselves.
People generally know Corey and Shirk, said Binder. Now they need to really sell why they deserve a third term and accentuate positives.
“They have to make the narrative,” he said.
For the challengers who are ahead, it’s about continuing to build name recognition across the three-county region through face-to-face meetings and advertising, which hasn’t started in earnest yet.
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