John Rutherford has a “comfortable” double-digit lead in the race for Congressional District 4, according to a University of North Florida poll released this morning.
Rutherford, a three-term Jacksonville sheriff, led the eight-person field with 27 percent of 403 registered Republican likely voters.
Hans Tanzler III, an attorney and former executive director of the St. Johns River Water Management District, was second with 13 percent and state Rep. Lake Ray came in third with 9 percent. Four others polled at 2 percent or less.
The highest percentage of likely voters — 46 percent — was undecided.
The poll was conducted June 28-29 and has a margin of error of plus or minor 4.9 percentage points.
Rutherford’s lead is enough to be called “comfortable” in a news release about the poll.
Yet, it’s a margin that probably should be larger, said Michael Binder, faculty director of the North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab, which conducts such polls.
Binder said Rutherford announced early enough to box out a number of potential quality candidates and faces a slate of candidates that don’t have his name recognition.
Plus, he’s been backed by high-ranking officials like Mayor Lenny Curry and several sheriffs, including Jacksonville Sheriff Mike Williams.
All told, Binder said he expected Rutherford to land somewhere closer to the 40 percent take.
The slimmer lead combined with a high percentage of undecided voters — including a whopping 63 percent in St. Johns County — and it leaves a little hope for those looking up, said Binder.
“It’s a big number,” said Binder of St. Johns County’s undecideds.
He said it will be interesting to see how the candidates spend their time and money there, especially given there hasn’t been a lot of spending in the race yet.
“There are a lot of Republicans down there,” he said. “I’m not sure what they’re waiting for just yet.”
Nassau County had 52 percent of those polled saying they didn’t know who they’d vote for, while Duval County had 36 percent.
The district comprises parts of all three Northeast Florida counties.
In Duval County, where the three frontrunners are better known, Rutherford led the way with 30 percent compared to Tanzler’s 15 percent and Ray’s 14 percent.
The group is vying to replace longtime U.S. Rep. Ander Crenshaw, who announced this year he wouldn’t seek another term. Crenshaw has been in the seat since 2001.
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