A Category 2 hurricane would threaten flood damage to only about 1.7 percent of Duval County businesses, affecting 2.9 percent of private sector workers in the county.
However, a Category 3 storm would threaten far more.
A Category 3, which would affect a lot more Downtown businesses along the St. Johns River, could cause flood damage to 10.8 percent of Duval businesses, affecting 13.5 percent of workers.
That’s what the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us, based on an analysis of counties in hurricane flood zones along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
Hurricane season is June 1-Nov. 30. As we begin another season, you’re certain to see a lot of data about the number of people and homes in danger from potential storms striking the Jacksonville area.
Since the BLS is focused on jobs, the agency provides data on the number of businesses in danger.
The BLS creates the data by matching flood zone maps from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and state emergency management agencies with quarterly data collected by the BLS on wages, employment and counts of establishments.
The BLS says it started creating disaster zone maps after Sept. 11, 2001, with a map of lower Manhattan.
After Hurricane Sandy in 2012, the agency began using flood zone maps to produce data on hurricane-prone businesses.
The current maps use data from the third quarter of 2017. The BLS said it uses third-quarter data because the months of July, August and September are the peak months of the hurricane season.
The Duval County map shows a Category 3 or higher hurricane poses the biggest threat to businesses, because so much of the Downtown area would be affected.
According to the BLS data, 3,140 county businesses employing 67,373 people earning $912 million in quarterly wages would be impacted.
An additional 825 businesses with 17,791 employees would be impacted by a Category 4 or higher storm.
By comparison about what to expect, Hurricane Irma was downgraded to a tropical storm as it blew by Jacksonville. Still, Downtown and other areas flooded, forcing businesses to close and then clean up.
Major hurricanes would have a bigger economic impact on the two other coastal communities in the Jacksonville metropolitan area, as far as percentage of businesses affected.
The BLS data shows 35 percent of St. Johns County businesses would be affected by a Category 4 storm or higher, and 27 percent of Nassau County establishments.
The maps, as you would expect, show significant flood potential in St. Augustine and Ponte Vedra Beach in St. Johns County and in Fernandina Beach in Nassau County.
Away from the coast, only 1.9 percent of Clay County businesses would be threatened with flooding from a Category 4 storm.
The BLS does not have flood zone data for Baker County.
You can check the data yourself on the agency’s website at www.bls.gov/cew/hurricane_zones.
