Economic forecast: Retailing, commercial development, commercial real estate, community development and nonprofits

Leaders in share the primary economic issues they will face in the new year and their plans moving forward.


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RETAILING

Frank Wallmeyer

Owner and President, Standard Feed and Seed Inc.

Frank Wallmeyer
Frank Wallmeyer

Primary issue: Inflation, which is the sum of higher raw materials, labor, energy and freight costs plus the cost of supply-chain disruption.

To try and soften the blow to our customers, it’s forced us to be extra diligent when sourcing and ask a lot of questions.

Are we sure we’re getting the best price? Should we consider using a different vendor? Is there an acceptable substitute? How much is freight? What are the terms? Can we get guaranteed pricing by pre-booking orders? Also, what can we do to be smarter, more efficient and better control expenses in the store? How long can we hold our pricing before having to raise it?

Ultimately, we can’t stop or prevent inflation, but we can do everything in our power to attempt to mitigate its harmful effects on our customers. 

COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT

Ben Hakimian

President, Hakimian Holdings Inc.

Ben Hakimian
Ben Hakimian

Primary issue: As a commercial real estate acquisition and redevelopment company, it has become increasingly difficult to find deals at a price that makes economic sense. 

There is a sort-of “buy everything” sentiment going on in the market nationwide, fueled primarily by low interest rates and higher inflation projections.

The real estate industry as a whole is cyclical in nature and while this new environment has extended the expansion period longer than in a normal cycle, like always, nothing goes up forever.

There is an old saying in real estate that “when the nonprofessionals begin investing, it’s the beginning of the end for growth” and we are seeing a lot of that taking place.

With that in mind, we have refinanced many of our properties and taken a higher cash position in anticipation of the downturn, which we believe will offer more opportunities with stronger fundamentals and a higher return on capital. 

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

David Smith

President, Smith McKee Construction LLC; 2022 President, NAIOP Northeast Florida

David Smith
David Smith

Primary issue: The changing workforce. 

Current labor shortages affecting the supply chain and logistics coupled with the evolution of the office workplace are resulting in a variety of impacts to the commercial real estate industry.

In this environment, the strategy to respond must be focused on offering creative solutions and alternatives to traditional processes, means and methods to meet market demands.

This requires setting the right expectations with clients early in the process and being proactive in offering measures that will fit their needs while mitigating issues affecting cost and schedule.

Communication is key as always, with parties at all stages of the transaction and delivery processes needing to provide a high level of transparency and flexibility as the CRE teams help navigate the evolving challenges of this market.

COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT

Travis L. Williams

Vice President of Operations and Impact, LIFT JAX

Travis L. Williams
Travis L. Williams

Primary issue: Ensuring the continued economic recovery equitably reaches all communities.

LIFT JAX has gathered leading business, philanthropic, civic and community leaders to address these challenges through implementing the Purpose Built Communities approach to neighborhood revitalization.

This place-based community transformation approach is employed through four pillars: mixed-income housing, community wellness, cradle-to-career education, and long-term financial vitality.

We’ve been fortunate to partner with the Historic Eastside community to implement this approach and bring this national model to Jacksonville. In 2022 we plan on doing our part to ensure that community development work is thoughtful, strategic, fiscally supported, and done “with” and not “to” the community.

We’re also working to ensure that the progress we make is sustainable. Our partnership with community leaders and organizations, namely the Historic Eastside CDC, is critical to ensuring sustainability and designing solutions that residents want to see in their own neighborhood.

NONPROFITS

Mari Kuraishi

President and CEO, Jessie Ball duPont Fund

Mari Kuraishi
Mari Kuraishi

Primary issue: The upward pressure on wages and many critical inputs. 

While that may sound like these are universal issues that the whole economy faces, unlike the for-profit sector, the nonprofit sector cannot pass on the higher prices to consumers.

The double whammy comes also from the fact that nonprofit wages typically are below those of the for-profit sector. As a grant-making foundation with long-standing relationships with many of our grantees, the duPont Fund in 2020 launched experiential training programs to improve our grantees’ capacity to cope with the rapid pace of change.

We heard from our grantees in 2019 that they valued support beyond grant dollars. The capacity-building programs are focused on enhancing transparency and building trust; listening to clients and constituents and acting on that feedback; improving digital fundraising skills; and how to build diverse, equitable and inclusive boards.

More than 120 grantees have participated in our programs and we look forward to continuing them.

 

 

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