A monthly survey of Jacksonville area manufacturers by the University of North Florida’s Local Economic Indicators Project indicated contraction in the local economy.
However, the manufacturers expressed optimism about improving conditions in the months ahead.
Meanwhile, a quarterly global survey of businesses by Jacksonville-based Dun & Bradstreet showed increased optimism about the world economy.
A purchasing manager’s index derived from UNF’s monthly survey of Northeast Florida manufacturing businesses was at 48.5 in June.
An index below 50 indicates a contraction in the economy while a reading above 50 indicates expansion.
“This index suggests that manufacturing activity in Jacksonville, like the broader U.S., is contracting as demand remains weak, output declines, and businesses manage inputs cautiously,” UNF economist Albert Loh said in his report on the survey.
“Despite the overall contraction, Jacksonville shows signs of stability and potential resilience,” he said.
The survey’s Business Activity Outlook Index was 56, indicating optimism for business activity in the next 12 months.
Comments from survey respondents give “a cautious but hopeful outlook, suggesting that businesses are preparing for continued or enhanced market conditions despite current challenges,” Loh said.
“This optimism is tempered by concerns over rising costs, price pressures, and a lack of good candidates for employment,” he said.
“While the Business Activity Outlook Index suggests confidence and expected growth in Jacksonville’s economy, businesses must navigate these challenges to fully realize their optimistic projections for the next 12 months.”
The survey’s Employment Index stood at 50 in June, indicating stability despite the concerns of recruiting new staff.
“Local companies appear to be maintaining their staffing levels despite broader economic pressures, which can provide a foundation for future growth if market conditions improve,” Loh said.
Jacksonville’s PMI equaled the national PMI of 48.5, calculated by the Institute for Supply Management, indicating the rest of the country is seeing similar trends as manufacturers experience in Northeast Florida.
Dun & Bradstreet’s Global Business Optimism Insights survey of 10,000 businesses showed increased optimism in all five of its indices: business, supply chain continuity, financial and investment conditions and ESG initiatives.
Dun & Bradstreet said businesses have overcome geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions and are becoming more optimistic that central banks are easing interest rates.
The business data firm said optimism in the U.S. rose nearly 17%, with particular confidence in the information and communications technology sector, where optimism jumped 51% this quarter.
“The improved optimism among businesses demonstrates resilience in navigating global disturbances by adapting to the ‘new normal’ and leveraging emerging opportunities,” said Neeraj Sahai, president of Dun & Bradstreet International, in a news release.
“Surge in investment confidence among businesses indicates higher capital requirements and a more buoyant M&A environment for inorganic growth. As we look with an eye toward the next quarter, it should be with cautious optimism, as policy uncertainty associated with upcoming elections globally persists,” he said.