After indicating a positive outlook for the economy during the first three months of the year, a monthly survey of Jacksonville area manufacturers by the University of North Florida’s Local Economic Indicators Project showed uncertainty in April.
A purchasing manager’s index derived from UNF’s Jacksonville Economic Monitoring Survey fell to 49 in April after staying above 50 for the previous three months.
An index above 50 indicates an expanding economy while a number below that suggests contraction.
“This contraction marks a slightly challenging phase for the manufacturing sector, which showed signs of recovery in March,” UNF economist Albert Loh said in his monthly report on the index.
“However, there are elements of resilience, such as maintained output levels and accommodative input conditions, which include stable supplier deliveries and inventory levels,” he said.
A business activity outlook index from the survey of Northeast Florida manufacturers stood at 50 in April, indicating a neutral forecast.
“Responses from manufacturers describing the current market as ‘busy’ with ‘strong demand’ and ‘looking good going into the summer months’ suggest a positive short-term outlook,” Loh said.
“However, the additional uncertainty about the longevity of these conditions indicates that businesses are wary of potential challenges ahead.”
The manufacturers’ responses suggest they “are preparing to navigate an uncertain economic landscape while capitalizing on immediate opportunities,” he said.
An employment index from the survey fell to 48, indicating a contraction in payrolls.
“This suggests that fewer manufacturing companies in Jacksonville are hiring or maintaining their workforce levels compared to the previous month, potentially due to reduced production needs or economic uncertainty,” Loh said.
Loh said the responses from Northeast Florida manufacturers are in line with national indexes.
“For Jacksonville, the economic outlook, though tempered by the PMI figures, still holds several bright spots,” he said.
“The local economy’s capacity to maintain stable supply chain operations and manage input costs provides a buffer against broader economic downturns. The business activity outlook remains neutral, indicating that businesses expect to sustain their current levels of activity, which could translate into stability in employment and production in the near term.”
“This resilience in foundational economic activities provides a basis for cautious optimism.”