| Carol Dole Associate Professor Davis College of Business Jacksonville University | Geneva Henderson Executive Vice President Lat Purser & Associates | Lauren Little Franchise Owner, Edible Arrangements Avondale and Bartram Park Women in Business Franchisee of the Year | Richard Stoecklein The Toy Factory The Landing | |
| Predictions call for up to a 3 percent growth in retail sales this holiday season, the best since 2006. Will Jacksonville area consumers mirror the national trends in sales? | Several factors will probably keep area sales below the national trend. These factors include the continued drag of the housing situation on the local economy and slow employment growth. While credit card debt levels have continued to fall across the country, most shoppers will probably make holiday purchases from current income. Concern about increasing debt, especially for the holidays, is probably stronger for local shoppers. | Overall, Jacksonville will have a hard time competing in the national market for a 3 percent increase in sales due to being hit so hard with unemployment and the debacle of foreclosures being so high. Retailers in your more affluent areas of Jacksonville are not as affected and will compete nicely in the retail growth. Jacksonville continues to have a lot of tire kickers and window shoppers. | I am certainly hopeful. In my business, I have seen people spend more per ticket item. In 2008, the average person was spending approximately $56 per order out of my business. Now, the average purchase is $80. I feel if consumers feel they are receiving value for their dollars, then they are more likely to spend. | Through April of this year we were down 14.9 percent and wondering when this particularly nasty recession was going to end. However, since May 1, we are up 15.2 percent and are now up 2 percent year-to-date. I would certainly think that a 3 percent increase during the Christmas selling season is well within reach, and actually expected, considering that the holiday season last year occurred at the very height of the economic downturn. |
| Consumers developed thrifty habits during the recession. How will those habits affect their holiday shopping? | Thriftiness will continue to play a role for shoppers this season. Shoppers no longer have to wait for sale notices in the newspaper. They have come to expect coupons via the Internet and e-mail. Shoppers may ‘play chicken’ with stores, with both waiting until the last minute to buy or put items on sale. Because there are few new products on the market this season, shoppers may win this game. | Consumers have had about three years to develop these thrifty habits and will probably remember this long and deep recession for a very long time and will quite certainly display those habits right on through the holidays. The length of the recession has an impact on most families in one way or another and I think that the lessons learned from the crazy spending days when the economy was so great will long be remembered. | The mindset of the consumer has definitely changed. More people are aware of how, when and where they are spending their money. I believe there are opportunities to have a wonderful season without overspending. Businesses are just hoping that consumers will spend more time focusing on local spending. At least I’m hoping so. | Consumers are going to continue to be thrifty, just as retailers who reduced payrolls will continue to be reluctant to hire back those previously released employees. However, the improving economic mood will result in customers being semicomfortable in spending slightly more than last year, although our significantly increased sales figures since May indicate that I may be understating the rally somewhat. |
| How important are promotions this holiday season? | Over the last two holiday seasons, shoppers have become accustomed to discounts offered through several sources. These include e-mail notices with coupons and daily discounts that take a percentage off purchases. For example, some stores place a sign outside the store that says ‘Take an extra 30% off today.’ This type of flexibility in promotions will continue to allow firms to respond quickly to demand and consumers will continue to expect them. | There could be no bigger time to rely on promotions than the holidays. Social media has amped up the way we all think about coupons. Groupons, The Daily Deal, LivingSocial, all bring a whole new meaning to savings. From your local dry cleaner and national food chains offering discounts to your online retailers offering discounts and free shipping, the consumer is looking for discounts and deals and will be taking advantage of that for a very long time. | I believe that promotions are important year-round. However, many consumers are especially looking to spread their money during the holiday season, so promotions during the holiday season are a win-win for both the consumer and the retailer. | Being under the blanket of the Jacksonville Landing, we have not ever discovered any economic advantage in getting involved in individual promotions. The Landing has already increased its promotions during 2010, which has helped our sales figures considerably. There are also plans for many more exciting promotions for this upcoming holiday season at the Landing, clearly indicating how important promotions have become in this retail environment. |
| When does the holiday shopping season actually begin? | The holiday shopping season starts in October. Stores already have holiday clothes on the racks and discount stores (such as Target and Walmart) increased their space for toys last month. Now it’s just a matter of waiting for sales. | I think for some people it is always the day after Christmas. Certainly the day after Thanksgiving is the most popular shopping day everywhere and retailers prepare for this day with great care and tremendous sales. I would expect that shoppers will be prudent in their choices and wait for sales before rushing out to just start shopping this year. | In speaking with my customers, many of them have actually started shopping for the Christmas holiday season. They are aggressively looking for discounts and promotions in order to save time and money. | Quite a few customers have started their holiday shopping already. There is a very good reason for this other than just ‘getting it over with.’ Those that wait until the last two weeks or so before Christmas don’t realize that they’re actually choosing their gifts from seriously ‘picked-over’ merchandise. By that I mean that the bigger chains do not always have time during December to ‘reload’ on the faster-selling merchandise. Being an independent, it’s much easier for us to keep the best-selling items coming in as late as Christmas Eve. |