by Mike Sharkey
Staff Writer
The Republican Party of Duval County’s mayoral poll results were released today and, with less than four weeks until the primary election, there are some surprises.
Although he has only been in the race for a little over a month, Sheriff Nat Glover has a comfortable lead (27 percent) over John Peyton (19 percent). And, Glover’s a Democrat.
Also somewhat surprising is the fact that Republican Ginger Soud and Democrat Betty Holzendorf both came in last with two percent of the vote, especially considering 56 percent of the 602 registered voters polled by American Public Dialogue were women.
“We were seeing that back when Alberta [Hipps] was in the race and Betty was not,” said John Libby, president of APD. “What is shows is there is no polarization of the candidates based on gender, even back then. Both genders are weighing the candidates on their merits. That shows a great deal of maturity on behalf of the electorate.”
Libby’s poll is the first major poll of the post-qualifying season. Trailing Glover and Peyton are Matt Carlucci (13 percent), Mike Weinstein (12 percent) and Soud and Holzendorf. While it’s difficult to put a great deal of stock in any poll — especially since only a fraction of the electorate was surveyed and there are 25 days until the April 15 primary — the candidates are paying attention, but not losing sleep.
“It’s evidence to us that our message is getting to the public,” said Maggie Bulin, spokesperson for Peyton. “We’re staying focused and on message. The only poll that matters is the one on April 15.
“But, at this stage, it doesn’t matter. It is one step at a time. It does help us determine how well our message is being received by the voting public. So far, so good.”
Obviously, the Glover camp is pleased, but not surprised. Attorney Steve Pajcic believes the sheriff’s eight years in office and overall popularity help explain Glover’s early lead in the polls. It’s the battle for the other spot in the May 13 general election that intrigues Pajcic.
“My thought, looking at it as a political observer, is that it’s a heckuva dog fight for the second spot,” said Pajcic. “Peyton has made a big move, Weinstein is starting to move up and Carlucci, who was the last to get on the air [TV], needs to rejuvenate his campaign.
“It’s [leading at this point] not unexpected, but what’s most interesting is the race for second.”
Libby’s poll was conducted early last week and compiled Thursday, the same day Carlucci’s commercials hit local airwaves. John Daigle, a spokesperson for Carlucci, said that factor, more than any other, helps explain Carlucci’s current third place standing. He also said it’s almost unrealistic to expect to catch Glover with just under four weeks until the primary.
“We will not focus so much on catching Glover at this point. All of our research shows a Democrat and a Republican are going to be in the general election,” said Daigle. “We’re not overly concerned about that poll. Obviously, it’s good news for the Peyton camp. They should be proud of their progress. The poll is a snapshot in time and it was taken last Thursday after three weeks of Peyton being on TV. Our paid TV campaign didn’t start until Thursday night.
“I’m not surprised, but obviously we’d like to be in second place.”
Daigle said Carlucci will be able to close the gap between himself and Peyton over the next few weeks in two ways.
“One, the progress Peyton has made is very soft. The undecided voters have seen nothing but Peyton on TV,” said Daigle. “Once the comparison can be made, the soft support will come back to us. Two, our advantage is we have the most extensive volunteer base of any campaign, including Glover’s. We will conduct a massive, door-to-door walking tour and we are planning a direct mail campaign. Targeting registered voters who will actually go to the polls is key.”
Weinstein spokesperson Susie Wiles said the poll indicates what the Weinstein camp already knew: Peyton’s money would buy enough television time to give him recognition, Carlucci’s and Glover’s political experience give them an initial edge and the fact Weinstein is mounting his first political campaign makes his job a little tougher.
“We’re actually very, very pleased with where Mike finds himself,” said Wiles. “We have seen a steady climb in the polls, both ours and the Republican poll. We like our trend line.”
Like others, Wiles believes the timing of the poll has played a significant role in the results.
“When the poll came out, we had just presented Mike on TV,” she said. “Next week, we will conduct an exhaustive poll. Right now, we are delighted with our trend line. It’s in the right direction. I think Mike has established himself as a very credible candidate.”
Despite the fact 56 percent of those polled were women, Wiles said she wasn’t surprised to hear Soud and Holzendorf were both trailing badly.
“My surprise has nothing to do with gender,” said Wiles. “Councilwoman Soud has not had the [financial] resources to get her name out to the community. She might not call herself underfinanced, but in this campaign, she’s underfinanced.
“Betty is underfinanced, too, but her grass-roots campaign, we believe, will make a difference on primary day.”
Dr. Matthew Corrigan, assistant professor of political science and public administration at the University of North Florida, said all polls have some significance, but also believes timing is the true measure.
“The numbers always mean something. I think it’s good news for the sheriff, especially after the late entrance of Betty Holzendorf,” said Corrigan. “The poll clearly shows that no one, if they all stay in the race, will get 50 percent of the vote in the primary.
“I think Peyton arising to second is a news item. I think it’s good news for them [the Peyton camp].”
Corrigan, like others, agreed that it’s too early to put much emphasis on a poll, but the fact that Soud and Holzendorf both have two percent of the vote indicates they are struggling.
“I don’t think it’s anyone’s place to tell someone to leave the campaign. That’s a personal decision,” said Corrigan. “But two percent? That’s a big mountain to climb. Can it be made up? Yes, but that’s a lot of ground.
“I don’t think it’s a lack of coincidence that both Ginger Soud and Betty Holzendorf have two percent when the top four have all been on TV. The grass roots stuff is always important, but the bottom line is this is a mass media campaign.”
Libby explained how his poll was conducted and why, right now, it’s the most scientifically accurate and unbiased poll in circulation.
“We polled only voters who had participated in one of the last four elections in Duval County. And, we stratified it by precinct,” said Libby. “That portion of our methodology makes it [the poll] a lot more accurate.”
According to Libby, the polls are a good indicator of the pulse of the electorate and any candidate that downplays — or ignores — the statistics isn’t being realistic.
“You’ll find lots of surveys floating around these days and if the candidates are unwilling to talk, that should raise some concerns with both the voting public and the media,” said Libby.