by Mike Sharkey
Staff Writer
The Kentucky Derby isn’t until May 3, but the mayoral battle to get into the runoff is certainly entering the homestretch. In about 156 hours (midnight Tuesday), we’ll know which Republican will likely face Sheriff Nat Glover in the May 13 general election.
(With a consistent 27 percent or so in most polls, it’s basically a given Glover will be in the runoff. Spokespeople for Matt Carlucci, John Peyton and Mike Weinstein also concede Glover will be the Democratic representative in the unitarian election.)
All three camps ooze with confidence, but the fact is only one will advance. Numerically, the scenarios are fascinating. According to the Supervisor of Elections Office, there are 462,397 registered voters in Duval County. With an expected turnout of 50 percent, approximately 231,198 voters will go to the polls Tuesday (or vote early or submit absentee ballots). Assuming Glover gets his 30 percent (69,359 votes) and Betty Holzendorf, Keith Myers and Ginger Soud share the six percent polls are indicating (9,700 votes between them), Carlucci, Peyton and Weinstein are after a majority of 152,139 votes.
“I’ve been in politics 36 years and the magic number is one more than the other guy,” said Peyton advisor Mike Hightower. “Anything more than that is ego points. We are scrambling for votes and looking at getting every vote. We are not after a percentage. Believe me, all you need is one more than the next guy.”
With an expected tight race for second, there has been talk of an almost automatic recount. According to the Elections Office, if there’s a difference of .6 or less between first and second or second and third, they have to execute a recount. Anything more than that is up to the candidates to lobby for.
Hightower, who found himself at the center of the 36-day presidential recount in 2000, doesn’t think a recount will be necessary, regardless of the outcome.
“I would be surprised if there’s a recount,” he said. “The new machines are 99.9 percent accurate. I don’t see the need for a recount.”
Hightower insists his candidate will spend the next seven days getting his message out without resorting to dirty politics. Still, with an enormous campaign coffer, Hightower won’t rule out anything.
“We’re not worried about other people,” said Hightower. “We have more contributions and more endorsements than any other candidate. John Peyton is getting his message out and he’s taking the high road. We’ll do whatever it takes to win.”
Carlucci spokesperson John Daigle said his candidate will also avoid any negative campaigning. Daigle says three factors will weigh heavily in the next several days, but his camp also doesn’t have a magic number in mind.
“If we have a number in mind, I’m not aware of it. We had a lot of meetings over the weekend and, other than to be the top Republican voter-getter, we have not said where a magic number is,” said Daigle.
Daigle believes the undecided vote in the polls, this weekend’s T-U endorsement and the recognizability of the Carlucci name will be key.
“There is still a large number, as high as 17 percent, that are undecided and that makes us very optimistic,” said Daigle. “Unless something really weird happens this week, we are still the candidate with the highest name recognition. On the ballot is Carlucci, a Republican, at the top followed by three Democrats. How much is that worth? A point? Maybe, at best. But the race may come down to a point or two.
“The Times-Union endorsement is traditionally worth a point or two and we feel good about that. We are still counting on this getting ugly with negative advertising before the end. We are not planning any of that and we have not produced any. “
The election’s final campaign reports are due Friday and Daigle promises a surprise. A couple of weeks ago, Carlucci himself said the “cavalry” was coming.
“I think there will be some surprises in that report,” said Daigle. “It will probably ruin their [the other Republican candidates] Friday.”
Weinstein spokesperson Susie Wiles said her candidate will spend the last several days trying to separate himself from the field.
“Every camp has a little different take on how to communicate with the voters,” said Wiles. “All of us concede it will absolutely be a horse race and it will be won by a nose.
“This week will be spent talking about Mike’s record and and the others’ records. It’s almost incumbent in the last week to point out the differences in the candidates, but it can be done a non-negative way.”