by Glenn Tschimpke
Staff Writer
If Tom Slade were a swami and everyone took his predictions as prophecy, then we may as well skip this fall’s elections and move on to next year. Slade, Duval County’s Republican Party chairman, sees the status quo emanating from his political crystal ball. With few possible exceptions, he sees incumbent Republican faces staying put in the state legislature, neither gaining nor losing seats.
“We’re gonna end November exactly like we went into it,” he said.
Nevertheless, Duval County’s delegation doesn’t subscribe to Slade’s story of smooth sailing through reelection. After a regular legislative session spliced between a slew of special sessions over the past year, local legislators are ready to brush the Tallahassee dust off their jackets and hit the fundraising trail.
“We’re ready to rock ‘n’ roll,” said Sen. Stephen Wise. After walloping W.C. Gentry last year in a special election for the seat, Wise takes nothing for granted.
“It doesn’t matter what kind of opponent you have. I treat them like Magilla Gorilla,” he said. “If they fall down, you stomp on them.”
In Wise’s case, the gorilla is Duval County School Board member Linda Sparks. Sparks, however, may end up more of a squirrel monkey. She has long indicated she will withdraw from the race and her dormant campaign account reflects her likely decision.
Wise is one of the few legislators so far unopposed by a candidate from the Libertarian Party, which has made a concerted effort to blanket the fall ballot with party presence. While the Libertarians’ strategy is designed to bring attention to the party while hopefully picking up a victory here and there, most incumbents aren’t willing to take the chance of being “the one that got beat by a Libertarian.”
Like Rep. Terry Fields, who faces Jacob Gardner. After taking a brief breather at home after session, Fields is ready to raise money and support in earnest.
“I am always worried,” said Fields regarding competition. “I don’t take anything for granted. I love campaigning — my juices really flow. I’m a little hyperactive anyway. It gives me a chance to get out of the office and meet people.”
Despite their blanket strategy, Slade doesn’t give the Libertarians a wide berth when referencing them. “I really don’t see that as a major sort of thing,” he said of their mass campaign initiative. “Third parties have never been successful since I’ve observed them in politics.”
Duval County Libertarian party chair Doug Klippel is used to getting brushed off.
“We’re like the Rodney Dangerfield of politics,” he said. “We don’t get any respect. But the fact that we have 90 House candidates across the state is certainly evidence that the Libertarian Party is alive and well.”
Klippel, who promised we “ain’t seen nothin’ yet,” said his party is looking for wins even though candidates will be outfunded in practically every race.
“I don’t think you enter the race unless you’re looking for wins,” he said.
Rep. Don Davis, who is opposed by Libertarian Dean Heinz, echoed Slade’s confidence over the Libertarians.
“I’m not very worried about them, to be honest with you,” said Davis. “I don’t know [Heinz]. I’ve been in this community since 1960. I’ve never talked to anybody yet who’s talked to him.”
As such, Davis promises to wait until after the qualifying period in July to determine his level of fundraising. Until then, he’ll take it easy.
“If I get an opponent, even if I get this guy Heinz, it’s a full-fledged campaign,” he said.
The magic number in for a campaign bank account is $150,000 for state representatives, $300,000 for senators. The 70-year-old Davis has about $50,000 banked so far. If needed, he said he has a group of about 1,000 donors he can count on.
“It’s a shame that it takes that much money, actually. But that’s what it takes,” he said. “I don’t want to wear my friends out unless I have to. I don’t want to ask them to contribute unless it’s necessary.”
Rep. Aaron Bean plans to throw his campaign into drive in about a month. Bean has been speaking to area civic clubs explaining what happened over the last five months in Tallahassee. While he sponsored the Aaron Bean Golf Tournament recently at Amelia Island Plantation, which raised $14,000, he feels the crunch of time.
“I’m probably behind the eight-ball,” he said. “We’re definitely going to have to raise more money, no doubt about it.”
While he carefully issues that standard cautionary statement regarding his Libertarian opponent, he nervously expects another opponent to get in the race.
“There is no one you can take for granted. An opponent is an opponent,” he said.
Things have been busy for the 35-year-old Bean — about three times as busy as he anticipated before he was elected in 2000. Still, he appears to relish the challenge and has his eye on his political future.
“There’s an old country song,” he begins. “I goes, ‘I like it, I love it, I want some more of it.’”
On the state level, the fall election promises to be the clash of the incumbents versus the Libertarians with few exceptions. State Rep. Mike Hogan has shown interest in the Duval County Tax Collector post to replace an ailing Lynwood Roberts. In that case, Slade said the Republican party would pitch in massive amounts of money to kickstart the campaign of a fresh-faced candidate.
The prevalent rumor: Hogan gets appointed to fill Roberts’ term and Slade talks Alberta Hipps out of the mayor’s race and into the Legislature. But, Hipps has been consistent in her statements that she’s running for mayor and nothing else. A possibility: Sparks switching to the House. City Council member Jim Overton also would be a possibility.
In the Democrat camp, State Sen. Betty Holzendorf is term limited out and Anthony Hill is line up to replace her. However, the Democrats may try some political chicanery to keep Holzendorf around by sending her to run for E. Denise Lee’s House seat while Lee runs for Holzendorf’s.
As such, Slade sees the Democrats are entrenched in their territories. He won’t even try to mount opposition.
“There’s an old southern expression,” he explained. “There ain’t no education in the third or fourth kick of a mule.”
In other words, why roll out a Republican into heavily-populated Democrat turf like a sacrificial lamb? It hasn’t worked in the past. Why would it work this year? It’s a waste of time and resources. Plus, it would ruin his prophecy.