The housing market should remain at a strong level in 2004, say experts in the field, but don’t expect another 2003.
The national and local builders associations predict a smaller increase this year.
The National Association of Home Builders predicts that 2003 existing-home sales will be up about 9 percent - a record of over 6 million units - and that new-home sales will have about the same percentage increase.
The forecast for 2004 should be close, but not at the record pace of 2003.
Locally, the numbers will be about the same, according to local analysts.
But, a major housing indicator is staying strong and could push this year up further.
The stocks of publicly traded companies whose primary business is multifamily housing continue to outpace the market as a whole and were poised to end the year at record high levels, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ Multifamily Stock Index. Apartment building is an indication of single-family home sales.
“Multifamily stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 12 months as well as over the last four years, noted Elliot Eisenberg, a housing policy economist at NAHB and creator of the index. “Investors are looking at multifamily companies as good long-term investments and, despite some weakness in the rental market over the past two years, these stocks continue to perform very well.”
Over the past 12 months the MFSI, which tracks the total returns (including capital gains and dividends) of 28 publicly traded firms principally involved in the ownership and management of apartments, has climbed steadily, reaching a record high of 1730 on the index in December.
This translates into a 20 percent gain in returns for multifamily stocksthis year, compared to the 15 percent gain for the market as a whole as reflected by the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested.