by Caroline Gabsewics
Staff Writer
The housing market and the economy may be doing better than most think.
Joe Farinacci of Metrostudy spoke to the Northeast Florida Builders Association’s Sales and Marketing Council last month about Northeast Florida’s current housing market and how it compares to the rest of the country.
Metrostudy, a national housing market research firm, sends teams of researchers out to current and prospective home subdivisions every 90 days to gather information for their primary housing market database.
The researchers record housing activity to provide accurate information on undeveloped, vacant developed lots, housing starts and closings, product and pricing, according to their Web site, Metrostudy.com.
“The economy is doing just fine,” said Farinacci to about 100 SMC members at the University of North Florida’s University Center. “Numbers are not positive or negative — it’s how we view them.”
Farinacci added that so many people are talking about the possibility of a recession.
“Recessions are defined by the government. The last recession was in 2001 and they usually happen every 10 years,” he said.
Farinacci showed Northeast Florida’s numbers compared to the U.S.
In some cases, Northeast Florida had numbers that were above the national average. But Northeast Florida fell below the national average most of the time.
Below are a few notes from Farinacci’s presentation:
• According to a consumer confidence survey, Farinacci said nationally there are 2.5 million home-buying households that will be buying a house in the next six months.
• Of the 2.5 million, 1.1 million will be looking for a resale home, 800,000 looking for a new home and 600,000 are uncertain if they want a new home or pre-existing home.
• There were 8,541 households that were moved into in a ‘bad year,’ said Farinacci.
• Out of these Northeast Florida’s counties — Duval, Clay, Nassau and St. Johns counties — Clay County saw a significant decrease in housing starts. (Metrostudy does not include Baker and Putnam counties in their Northeast Florida survey.)
• At the height of the market, Clay County had 3,500 new home starts to 652 in 2007, Farinacci said that it’s of concern.
• Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties all dropped 50 percent in that time frame, but Clay dropped significantly more, he said.
Farinacci believes 2008 will be better for two reasons.
“The demand (to move into homes) in Jacksonville is still going to be high and interest rates are very low,” he said.