by Michele Newbern Gillis
Staff Writer
Cynthia Shelton, president-elect of the Florida Association of Realtors, had some good news for the Amelia Island/Nassau County Association of Realtors last month at their monthly luncheon.
“I think the market is turning around,” said Shelton, who specializes in commercial real estate with the Colliers Arnold firm in Orlando.
“Everyone wants to know if we’ve hit bottom. I don’t have a crystal ball. This morning, when I got out of my car, it fell out and shattered all over the ground, so I lost it.”
Shelton, speaking at the Lewis “Red” Bean Nassau Technical building at the Florida Community College of Jacksonville’s Nassau Center, went on, “In Orlando, the market has either flattened out or it’s starting to come up. What I mean is that prices have seemed to hit the bottom. Inventory is being taken up and there is less inventory on the market.
“So, that means absorption. A few months ago they predicted that we had like 15 months of inventory and now we have like eight months of inventory. So, it’s being taken up. You can’t look at year over year. We had a phenomenal 2005, 2006 and even some of 2007. What you have to look at is month over month. That’s where you notice it is changing. Month over month since January, things have gotten better. I think the market is pretty stable state wide right now.”
Shelton likened the real estate market to the stock market. She said for the Realtors to tell their customers to not sell unless they have to.
“When you sell stock and the market is down, you lose money,” she said. “The thing is, you just don’t sell it unless you have to. I’ve turned down commercial and residential listings because they are not willing to price them right. You can tell them that the market is here and this is where I recommend you price it, but they are still looking at a year or ago when their neighbor sold their house. It’s just not there today.”
Shelton said the average person should stay in their home 5-7 years anyway, so it’s not a bad thing to not sell and wait for the property to gain some equity.
“Those of you who have been in the business five years or less got into the market when it was so hot that people were calling you and bidding on houses,” said Shelton. “It’s the craziest market in my entire 33 years of real estate. It’s not normal. Don’t let anyone tell you it is if you haven’t figured it out already. You actually have to take the CIPS courses. You have to take the GRI courses. You have to do things to improve your education in the market we are in right now.”
It’s a great time to get ready, she said, because the market will change again.
“That is what real estate is about,” said Shelton. “Who knows when? If we knew that we’d all be wealthy and we wouldn’t be out here hitting the pavement trying to sell real estate.”
A new Web site that Shelton recommends Realtors visit is buynow.floridarealtors.org.
“It has all kinds of information and clips that can help you,” she said. “There is all kinds of news and data to help keep you up to speed on what’s really going on in the market. It’s also going to help spread the word that its time to buy Florida real estate and buy it now.”
Shelton said there are some challenges left to face. Everyone is feeling the pinch and the FAR is no exception.
Cutting costs in the budget is an important part of keeping an organization afloat. Shelton cut $1.8 million out of the budget in April 2008.
“But, we didn’t cut any programs, products and services,” she said. “We want the members to know the services are still there.”
Shelton highly recommended the technology and legal hotlines.
“They are free to you as part of your dues,” she said.
Shelton said the reason for the cuts was because she thinks there will be a drop in members come 2009.
“FAR is financially sound,” she said. “We have a $19 million budget and about 100 on staff. Our membership at its peak was 165,000. For the planning budget for this year, we’re planning on 137,000. Next year, for my budget, I think we are going to have another drop.”
Even though she started out the meeting saying things were getting better, she said it meant a shift in the market that can mean different things to different people.
“But what’s happened is some of the shifting means that some of the people who are in it aren’t going to make it,” she said. “There are people probably who shouldn’t have been in the business in the first place. I don’t mean that negatively, but it looks like an easy business to get into and, I don’t know about you, but I’m working harder than I have ever worked for less money.
“It is not an easy business. You actually have to hit the pavement and get out and knock on doors. Knowing your market is where Realtors bring it home. If we know our market, we are ethics, we share information and we are better educated, we will make it through the bad times as well as the good times.”