by Karen Brune Mathis
Managing Editor
A Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta executive offered some bright spots for Jacksonville amid a gloomy national economic report last week.
Chris Oakley, vice president and regional executive of the bank’s Jacksonville Branch, told the Meninak Club of Jacksonville Monday that Florida added 48,800 jobs in the second quarter, April-June, with 8,400 of those in metropolitan Jacksonville.
“Jacksonville accounted for about one in every five jobs created in Florida in the second quarter,” Oakley told the 70 Meninak members meeting at the Wyndham on the Downtown Southbank.
Also, Jacksonville’s construction employment gains are among the strongest in the region, he said.
While the number of construction jobs in metro Jacksonville declined by 49 percent during the recession, it has grown by 12.5 percent since the recovery began, according to his presentation.
Jacksonville’s largest job losses by percentage during the recession were construction, followed by “other services,” down almost 20 percent, and manufacturing, down by 19 percent.
Since the recovery, “other services” has experienced job growth of 1.3 percent and manufacturing has gained 1.9 percent.
The biggest gainers by percentage since the recovery began are leisure and hospitality, at 15.2 percent, and education and health care, up 13.4 percent.
Leisure and hospitality jobs fell by 13.2 percent in the recession, while education and health care did not show a drop.
The recession, which began in December 2007, was tough on Jacksonville’s jobs just as it was across the country.
“All industries except education and health care saw significant job losses during the downturn,” Oakley said of Jacksonville.
“Leisure and hospitality is the only sector apart from health care that has regained all the jobs lost during the downturn,” he said.
While the U.S. recession officially ended in mid-2009, consumers and businesses aren’t exhibiting economic confidence by way of adding jobs and spending money.
As the recovery inches along, the recession turned out to be even deeper than thought.
“If it wasn’t bad enough, it was actually worse,” Oakley said. “A sustainable positive recovery is going to take a while.”
Oakley also presented information that showed consumer spending has moderated “markedly” this year. “It’s still on the positive side of that zero line,” he said.
Business demand for capital goods has moderated as well.
However, housing markets remain depressed.
“There’s still not a lot of good news about housing,” he said.
“If the worst is not behind us, at least we’re close,” he said. “Maybe we’ve found a floor here.”
He showed one chart that indicated there were “tentative signs home prices may stabilize.” However, foreclosures could affect that.
Oakley said he was expressing his own views and not necessarily those of the Fed.
Oakley’s information from the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the benchmark adjustments to the gross domestic product, which is the value of the goods and services produced by labor and property in the country, “now paint a materially different picture of the recession and the recovery.”
Oakley’s presentation showed that unemployment has recently increased and wage growth remains modest.
The unemployment rate is expected to decline gradually. “It is frustratingly slow,” said Oakley.
The Federal Reserve System is the nation’s central bank and is based in Washington, D.C.
The Fed makes monetary policies to stabilize prices and moderate long-term interest rates. It also regulates banks for safety and soundness.
The Federal Reserve Banks consist of 12 regional banks.
The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee recently said it anticipated that inflation will settle over the coming quarters at levels at or below those consistent with the committee’s unofficial target.
Oakley said the decision to keep the interest rate stable “is a signal to the market” that the “interest-rate environment is stable for the foreseeable future, perhaps removing an element of uncertainty.”
“This is still a very, very weak recovery,” he said.
“Every time we get a little bit of momentum, something happens somewhere and here we go again.”
He emphasized, however, that the Federal Reserve “continues to have the tools available to deal with surprises that could impact the economy.”
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