Jacksonville’s economy is treading water with no clear indication where the tide is taking it.
University of North Florida economist Paul Mason found in his third-quarter LEIPLNE newsletter that there are no definitive trends in the economic indicators he tracks through the Local Economic Indicator Project.
For example, the most recent unemployment data show that regional unemployment for the five-county area has fallen below 10 percent, which he said is “on the good side.”
However, the rate was below 10 percent in May, June and July before returning to double-digit levels in August. It’s rare for the rate to be low for three consecutive months before rising above 10 percent, he said.
“Our local economy continues to be dominated by financial services and other service-related industries,” he wrote.
“Until consumers regain the confidence to increase spending, local businesses will be reluctant to hire to further fuel consumer optimism,” he said.
There also is an overriding factor, he said.
“Standing most in the way is uncertainty in Washington that translates political gridlock into economic gridlock everywhere,” he said.
Mason is the Kathryn Richard deRaismes Kip professor of economics in the UNF Coggin College of Business Department of Economics and Geography.
He directs the UNF Local Economic Indicator Project, which covers Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties.
He writes the quarterly LEIPLINE newsletter that focuses on four variables in the Jacksonville area: inflation, unemployment, the leading indicator and stock prices. The most recent was the 20th installment of LEIPLINE.
Mason said he waits until at least the middle of the following quarter to report the previous quarter because data change. The third quarter was July-September.
Of the four variables he analyzes, he said the local consumer price index is most significant.
LEIPLINE summarized:
• Inflation. The third-quarter local Consumer Price Index numbers revealed an outcome prevalent for three of the past four years – a decline in the growth rate of inflation during the third quarter.
If October numbers are included, the inflation rate for the past three months has been virtually zero.