Perhaps, as a critic of the Legislature’s first two drafts of congressional districts has said, the third time will be the charm.
Lawmakers return to the Capitol today to once again draw a map for each of Florida’s 27 congressional seats. It is a drama being watched in Tallahassee and Washington, D.C., as shifting lines just a few miles in one direction or another could decide the futures of several members of the state’s U.S. House delegation.
The session follows a July 9 ruling by the Florida Supreme Court that the state’s existing congressional map violates one of the two anti-gerrymandering “Fair Districts” amendments approved by voters in 2010.
The rulings led lawmakers to agree to also redraw the state Senate map — another special session for that purpose is scheduled in October — and has also led some Republicans to question the justices’ decision.
“Most respectfully, I believe the Supreme Court has gone far beyond what they should in requiring that these lines be drawn to the satisfaction of Democratic political operatives,” said Sen. Don Gaetz, a Niceville Republican who headed the redistricting committee in 2012.
Already, some dominoes have started to fall. Republican U.S. Rep. David Jolly has announced he will run for the U.S. Senate, perhaps realizing his Pinellas County congressional seat would likely become far more difficult to win.
Under a plan drawn by legislative staffers to serve as a “base map” for the upcoming session, President Barack Obama won what would become Jolly’s district by almost 11 points. The proposed district also went for former Gov. Charlie Crist in his unsuccessful attempt to reclaim the governor’s mansion in 2014. Crist, a Democrat, has said he will run for the seat if it includes his home, as it does under the base map.
Democratic Congresswoman Gwen Graham and Republican Congressman Daniel Webster also could lose if they run in their districts after the lines are reconfigured. Graham’s Northwest Florida swing seat would become heavily Republican, while Webster’s Central Florida district would become friendly to Democrats.
In all, most analysts have suggested that Democrats would likely net one seat under the new maps, shifting the balance of the state’s delegation from 17-10 to 16-11.
Even where partisan advantages aren’t shifting, members of Congress could have decisions to make. Under the base map, Democratic Congressman Ted Deutch and Democratic Congresswoman Lois Frankel would be drawn into the same seat. The Palm Beach County lawmakers issued a joint statement Friday pledging not to run against one another –– while also making clear they will seek to return to Washington.
Also, Democratic Congresswoman Corrine Brown is outraged by the court-ordered reorientation of her district. Currently, Brown represents a district that stretches from Jacksonville to Orlando. Under the Supreme Court’s decision and the base map, the seat would instead represent an area that runs from Jacksonville in the east to Gadsden County in the west.
On Thursday, Brown went to federal court to try to block legislators from reconfiguring the district that way.
Ultimately, the new map will return to the Supreme Court for justices to decide whether it meets the requirements of Fair Districts. But Gaetz had a simple prediction when asked what he thought would come out of the redistricting session.
“More lawsuits,” he said.