For the first time in her career, U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown is in a tight race for re-election.
It’s not necessarily the Jacksonville Democrat’s opponent or the fact she’s being investigated by the House Ethics Committee.
It’s the unfamiliarity that voters in Brown’s new district have with the longtime congresswoman.
A new University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab poll shows Brown with a 3 percentage point lead over former state Sen. Al Lawson in the Democratic primary.
But, a higher percentage of likely voters fall in the undecided category (40 percent) than those who say they will vote for Brown (30 percent).
Michael Binder, faculty director of the research lab, said Brown’s strength is clearly in Duval County, where 52 percent of voters back her compared to 8 percent for Lawson.
But following the district’s new westward path through counties stretching from Baker to Leon, her support drops considerably. Brown is at 14 percent, compared to Lawson’s 40 percent.
“Here in Duval County, we know Corrine Brown as this omnipresent figure,” Binder said. “But the rest of the district doesn’t really know her very well.”
He said a lot of the western counties were finalizing district lines as last week’s qualifying period was approaching. In fact, Binder said, multiple voters contacted for the poll thought they were still in the second congressional district versus the fifth.
He said the high percentage of undecided voters also can be tied to the dominant coverage of the presidential race.
“There’s not a lot of air in the room for races besides (Donald) Trump and Hillary (Clinton),” he said.
For Brown to win, Binder said she needs to “work like heck” to mobilize the African-American vote in Duval County and make sure her base turns out for the Aug. 30 primary.
And, he said, Brown “needs to get off her butt and start going to meetings in some of these western counties,” including Rotary clubs and local Democratic party gatherings.
But that type of campaigning isn’t in the congresswoman’s wheelhouse, Binder said.
“She’s not the go to Rotary Club type of person. She’s not great at hand-to-hand politicking of meeting voters,” Binder said.
And, he said, “I’m not convinced she’s ever going to try.”
She is bolstered by support from women voters, who generally turn out more than men. That’s even truer in some of the African-American communities in the district because so many black males are prohibited from voting because they are felons, he said.
For Lawson, the keys are reacquainting himself with voters in Tallahassee, where he lives and where he served in the Legislature for 28 years.
Binder said Lawson needs to remind voters he’s not the candidate being investigated by federal authorities and there’s not a possibility of an indictment against him.
Plus, he said, he needs to talk about what happens if Brown wins the primary, but then is indicted.
“Then a Republican wins the district,” Binder said.
The Democratic primary winner will face Republican Glo Smith in the Nov. 8 general election.
Binder said the poll’s results show there’s an opportunity for both Brown and Lawson, but more for the latter.
Uncertainty in a race tends to give the challenger hope, he said.
If Brown was running in her old district, Binder said the controversies surrounding her wouldn’t be an issue.
“I don’t even know if she would have had a quality challenger,” he said.
The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday with 400 likely Democratic voters. The margin of error is 4.9 percentage points.
A third candidate, LaShonda Holloway, drew 4 percent.
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