UNF economic report shows expansion, optimism

“The Jacksonville economy exhibits resilience and a capacity for growth even as the broader U.S. manufacturing sector faces challenges,” UNF economist Albert Loh says.


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  • | 2:10 p.m. February 13, 2024
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Albert Loh, University of North Florida professor of economics and director of the school’s Local Economic Indicators Project. He created a measure of the area economy called the Jacksonville Economic Monitoring Survey, or JEMS.
Albert Loh, University of North Florida professor of economics and director of the school’s Local Economic Indicators Project. He created a measure of the area economy called the Jacksonville Economic Monitoring Survey, or JEMS.
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A monthly survey of Jacksonville manufacturers by the University of North Florida’s Local Economic Indicators Project showed marginal expansion in January and that local manufacturers are more optimistic about business conditions.

A purchasing manager’s index derived from UNF’s Jacksonville Economic Monitoring Survey edged up from 50 in December to 50.4 in January. Any number above 50 indicates expansion.

A national purchasing manager’s index from the Institute for Supply Management rose in January but only reached 49.1, indicating activity was contracting.

“The Jacksonville economy exhibits resilience and a capacity for growth even as the broader U.S. manufacturing sector faces challenges,” UNF economist Albert Loh said in his monthly report on the index.

“Local businesses in Jacksonville are likely benefiting from conditions that support slight expansions, such as stable demand and strategic adjustments to operations and supply chain management,” Loh said.

“This local growth, even if modest, suggests that Jacksonville’s manufacturing sector is navigating current economic uncertainties with some degree of success, finding opportunities to maintain and slightly expand operations amid a challenging national landscape.”

The survey’s business activity outlook index surged higher from 52 in December to 64 in January, putting it well into expansion territory.

“This jump indicates a stronger belief among the manufacturing companies surveyed that business activities will expand over the next 12 months. Such confidence suggests that manufacturers anticipate increased demand, improved market conditions, or both,” Loh said.

The manufacturers employment index edged lower by one point to 52, but that still shows more companies are adding jobs than decreasing employment.

“This sustained growth suggests that the manufacturing sector in Jacksonville remains in a phase of cautious hiring, reflecting optimism about future production needs and economic conditions,” Loh said.


 

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