A monthly survey of Northeast Florida manufacturers by the University of North Florida’s Local Economic Indicators Project showed some improvement in November, with respondents having cautious optimism about 2026.
After eight straight months of contraction, the survey’s Purchasing Managers’ Index registered at 50 in November, indicating local manufacturing activity was essentially flat.
A reading below 50 indicates contraction and a result above 50 indicates expansion.
The survey’s Business Activity Outlook index registered 53, indicating expectations that manufacturing activity will improve over the next 12 months.
“A value of 53 reflects cautious optimism rather than strong confidence,” UNF economist Albert Loh said in his monthly report on the survey.
“Firms foresee modest growth despite the challenges they are currently navigating. This forward-looking index is important because it captures expectations rather than present conditions, and even a small expansion reading shows that most respondents anticipate slightly better business activity heading into late 2026,” he said.
“For Jacksonville’s broader economy, this measured confidence helps support investment planning, hiring decisions, and overall momentum as the region moves into 2026,” he said.
The flat PMI for Jacksonville contrasts with the national PMI of 48.2 in November reported by the Institute for Supply Management, indicating contraction.
“A flat PMI is relatively positive when compared with deeper national declines and highlights Jacksonville’s resilience heading toward 2026,” Loh said.
“Jacksonville’s readings across new orders, output, inventories, delivery times, and business outlook suggest a regional economy that is holding steady despite mixed signals,” he said.
“Firms here reported modest growth in output, slight increases in materials purchases, and improving supply chain conditions.”
Nationally, the manufacturing environment is more challenging, according to the ISM survey.
“Many industries continued to contract due to tariffs, soft global demand, and policy uncertainty. Employment remains under pressure nationally, with firms cutting headcounts rather than hiring, and input prices continue to rise for materials such as steel and aluminum,” Loh said.
Employment was one of the few negative indexes in the Jacksonville survey, reading at 45 in November.
“This contracting reading suggests that more manufacturers cut positions or left openings unfilled,” Loh said.
Manufacturing employment had been declining in Jacksonville but because of the federal government shutdown, the Florida Department of Commerce has been unable to provide new data for Jacksonville and the rest of the state since the August report.
The Department of Commerce is scheduled to report the delayed labor market data for September on Dec. 11. However, because the federal government was unable to collect data in October, there will be no labor market report for that month, either for Florida or nationally.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has scheduled its report on November data for Dec. 18, two weeks later than normal. But the Florida Department of Commerce has not yet scheduled the release of labor market information for November.