A monthly survey of Northeast Florida manufacturers by the University of North Florida’s Local Economic Indicators Project shows the region’s economy continuing to contract.
Meanwhile, a global survey by Jacksonville-based Dun & Bradstreet showed a lack of optimism at businesses in a wide range of industries.
UNF’s survey produced a Purchasing Manager’s Index of 47.3 in June, indicating contraction in manufacturing activity in the Jacksonville area.
The index is based on 50 being neutral so any reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“Local output and new orders continue to decline, and employment is shrinking, painting a picture of subdued business confidence and a wait-and-see approach among firms facing persistent uncertainty,” UNF economist Albert Loh said in his monthly report on the survey.
“Tariffs are clearly influencing pricing and procurement decisions, contributing to rising input costs and delays in delivery,” he said.
“While the data does not yet indicate a deep downturn, the combination of tariff pressures, soft demand, and reduced hiring could erode local economic momentum and increase the risk of recession if conditions don’t improve in the months ahead.”
The survey’s Business Activity Outlook Index was at 50 in June, with respondents split on the outlook for the next 12 months.
“While not a sign of immediate concern, it suggests a lack of confidence in the near-term economic direction,” Loh said.
“Many local firms appear to be in a holding pattern, hesitant to make significant strategic moves until there’s greater clarity in the market,” he said.
Global Business Optimism Index
Dun & Bradstreet’s Global Business Optimism Index showed a more pessimistic near-term outlook from its survey of about 10,000 business leaders in 17 industry sectors around the world.
The index fell 6.5% in its May/June survey, reflecting the lowest level of optimism since late 2023, the business data firm said.
“Geopolitical instability in the Middle East, persistent trade frictions and concerns about slowing global demand have contributed to a significant shift in business risk appetite among survey respondents,” said Neeraj Sahai, president of Dun & Bradstreet International, in a news release.
“With global conditions remaining unsettled, many businesses are re-evaluating their investment priorities and reinforcing resilience strategies to navigate ongoing uncertainty,” he said.