by Mike Sharkey
Staff Writer
The argument for and against term limits has been going on for decades.
There are those who say all offices should be term-limited in an effort to assure turn over at every level of government. After all, if the president can only serve two terms why can members of Congress and the United States Senate serve for life?
Locally, the Constitutional officers — sheriff, clerk of courts, property ap-
praiser, tax collector and supervisor of elections — can seek re-election over
and over. However, City Council and mayor are both offices affected by term limits.
The flip side of the argument is there are those who say everyone is potentially under term limits and those limits can occur at the polls.
In 2011, Mayor John Peyton is out after two terms as are six members of City Council. That means 13 members are incumbents and may seek re-election. History shows a majority will return to office, meaning much less turnover on Council than in recent years.
“What you get happening in real institutional memory leaving. That’s the thing I notice the most,” said Bruce Barcelo, owner of Barcelo & Company and political analyst and advisor.
When Daniel Davis, Art Shad, Michael Corrigan, Kevin Hyde, Glorious Johnson and Art Graham — who has filed to run for State Senate in 2010 — leave office the last day of June in 2011, they will take with them nearly 50 years of combined experience leading Council and creating and passing legislation. Three will leave having served as Council vice president and president, another combined six years of leading the 19-member body.
“Each is their own unique person and each brings something different to the legislative body,” said Barcelo, who will advise local politicians on a pro bono basis, but doesn’t work for anyone in particular. “I have so many friends here they would end up running against each other. I do worry about candidate recruitment a lot.”
For decades, candidates for office either filed on their own, filed at the encouragement of others or were recruited during closed-door meetings. Today, all of that still goes on. However, the Jacksonville Regional Chamber of Commerce has created the Jacksonville Regional Political Leadership Institute. The nonpartisan initiative is designed to invite members of the local business community to openly talk about their interest in local office with members of the Chamber. What comes of those conversations may show on the March 22, 2011 primary in the form of business-friendly candidates.
“Finding more qualified candidates is the primary worry,” said Barcelo, adding the Chamber’s initiative will play a key role in finding those candidates.
Barcelo also said the candidate of the future will be vastly different from those of the past. Age, he says, is a major factor in a country that seems to be willing to elect someone that doesn’t fit the typical profile.
“Are they going to be younger? Sure they are. Over time the demographics are absolutely going to win,” said Barcelo. “The days of the middle-aged white guy are coming to an end.”
With less than two years left in office, the names surfacing to replace Peyton run the gamut of seasoned politician — former State Rep., Council member and current Tax Collector Mike Hogan, for example — to security consultant Dan Newman, who has already filed to run.
In analyzing the mayor’s race, Barcelo says there are three types of candidates: traditional, nontraditional and the kind he calls the “dopey, lunatic fringe candidate” whose name usually causes eyes to roll.
“For the traditional candidate, from September of ‘09 until January or February of 2010, the pressure will build. They will get back from the beach and from North Carolina and the pressure will increase over the fall and into the holidays,” explained Barcelo. “From about Jan. 15-20, the pressure will be excruciating. It will culminate in late April or early May because folks tend to worship at the altar of the quarterly campaign finance cycle.”
Barcelo says the nontraditional candidates are those who will wait to see who files in the first quarter of 2010 and then sit back and watch for a while.
“They will say, ‘I am not buying into that.’ I haven’t seen anybody yet that makes people want to buy in heavily,” he said. “Throughout 2010, they will continue to look for that brand new traditional candidate or uncover a Barack Obama. Five years ago, no one knew his name. It was a well-run campaign that took him to the top.”
Barcelo believes the ballot for the March 22 primary could be packed.
“I think there are a dozen good names out there. Not all of them will start (campaigning) Oct. 1. Early on, some will announce and they will either succeed or languish,” he said. “This is not a movie, it’s an 18-month soap opera.”
City Council breakdown
Barring any legislation passing that would alter dates, the next major local election is the March 22, 2011 primary followed by the May 17 general election. Mayor John Peyton won’t be able to seek re-election due to term limits. The same goes for several City Council members. However, unlike recent years, a majority of Council is an incumbent and, if all are re-elected, there would be little turnover in the 2011-14 Council.
The following is a list of who is eligible to run again and who isn’t:
Incumbents
• Council President Richard Clark, Dist. 3*
• Council Vice President Jack Webb, Dist. 6
• Ronnie Fussell, At-Large, Group 1*
• Johnny Gaffney, Dist. 7
• Stephen Joost, At-Large, Group 3
• Ray Holt, Dist. 11
• Clay Yarborough, Dist. 1
• Denise Lee, Dist. 8
• Bill Bishop, Dist. 2
• Warren Jones, Dist. 9
• Don Redman, Dist. 4
• Reggie Brown, Dist. 10**
• John Crescimbeni, At-Large, Group 2**
Term-limited
• Daniel Davis, Dist. 12
• Art Shad, Dist. 5
• Art Graham, Dist. 13 (has filed to run for State Senate)
• Glorious Johnson, At-Large, Group 5
• Kevin Hyde, At-Large, Group 4
• Michael Corrigan, Dist. 14
* Clark and Fussell were elected to Council in 2005 and filled unfinished terms. They were re-elected in 2007 and are eligible to run for a full second term.
** Brown and Crescimbeni were elected to Council in a special election in November of last year. They are both eligible for two full terms on Council.
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