An analysis scheduled for presentation June 2 to the St. Johns County Board of County Commissioners projects the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will be “somewhat worse” for Northeast Florida’s economy than the rest of the nation.
According to an agenda item memorandum for the commission meeting, the analysis was developed by Regional Economics Models Inc. for specific areas, based on national data compiled by the University of Michigan.
“Overall, the model suggests that the economic effects of even a ‘best case scenario’ will be severe,” it said.
“Northeast Florida will see effects about 15% more severe than the national average.”
The presenters are listed as Northeast Florida Regional Council Economic Development Project Manager Jack Shad and resiliency coordinator Sean Lahav.
A 2.7% decline in the nation’s gross domestic product likely will cause Northeast Florida to lose about 41,000 jobs, about 4.2% of the workforce, the model predicts.
“Job losses will likely not be spread evenly across the regional economy but will be concentrated in certain industries,” the memo said.
The biggest losses would come in health care and social assistance, which would decline by 7,899 jobs from 2019-20, or 6.8%.
Other big losses would be in accommodation and food services, down 4,887, or 5.6%, and finance and insurance, down 4,762, or 6.1%.
Construction, real estate and other services are other industries projected to have major job losses.
The only sectors projected to gain jobs are state and local government, up 1,271, or 1.8%, and federal military, up 299, or 2.1%.
The analysis also projects Northeast Florida's real disposable personal income per capita will fall by $2,198, or 5.2%, this year.
