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Jax Daily Record Wednesday, Feb. 20, 201901:09 PM EST

Mayor Curry, other incumbents lead new UNF poll

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Sheriff Mike Williams also has the edge over his challenger
by: David Cawton Associate Editor

A new poll shows Mayor Lenny Curry and Sheriff Mike Williams with enough support to win a second term in March, avoiding potential runoff races in the spring. 

The University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab poll released Wednesday surveyed 962 likely voters by phone Saturday-Tuesday. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Jacksonville’s unitary election is March 19. If no candidate earns 50 percent of voter support plus one vote, the top two candidates will face a May 14 runoff election.

UNF surveyed voters on the races for Jacksonville mayor, sheriff, property appraiser, tax collector and the five At-Large City Council seats.

In every race where an incumbent is running, that person is favored.

Mayor

The poll found Curry with 52 percent of support. The Republican is seeking a second term after being elected in 2015.

Republican City Council member Anna Lopez Brosche is second with 15 percent, followed by no party affiliate candidate Omega Allen with 6 percent and Republican Jimmy Hill with 3 percent.

Three percent of voters said they would vote for someone else and 22 percent were undecided.

In the absence of a party-backed candidate, Democrat voters are split with Curry and Brosche each at 25 percent with 32 percent undecided.

Republicans overwhelmingly support Curry at 78 percent. Hill and Brosche are both at 4 percent, with 13 percent undecided. 

Crime, at 62 percent, and education, at 13 percent, continue to be the top two issues facing Jacksonville, according to voters, followed by Downtown redevelopment and access to health care, both at 6 percent.

Constitutional officers

In the race for Jacksonville sheriff, Republican incumbent Mike Williams is polling at 56 percent. Democrat Tony Cummings is at 33 percent with 11 percent undecided.

Like Curry, Williams is running for a second term after being elected in 2015.

Williams is polling at 90 percent among Republicans and has 19 percent of the Democrat vote, according to the poll.

Property Appraiser Jerry Holland also could avoid a May 14 runoff with Democrat Kurt Kraft.

Fifty-seven percent back Holland, a Republican. Kraft is at 28 percent with 15 percent undecided.

Tax Collector Jim Overton has a 12-point edge over Democrat and current council member John Crescimbeni. Overton, a Republican, is at 47 percent, Crescimbeni, a Democrat, is at 35 percent with 18 percent undecided.

At-large groups

Jacksonville’s 19-member legislative body has five at-large seats that represent the entire city. The City Council also has 14 district seats for specific areas of town.

Two out of three at-large races feature incumbents seeking re-election. In all five races, at least a quarter of those polled said they were undecided.

Democrat Lisa King is leading the five candidates in At-Large Group 1.

She has 32 percent of voters’ support, followed by Republicans Jack Daniels at 10 percent, Gary Barrett at 5 percent and Terrance Freeman at 5 percent. No party affiliate candidate Connell Crooms has 4 percent and 45 percent are undecided.

Freeman currently represents District 10.

The race for At-Large Group 2 is closer.

Republican Ron Salem, with 36 percent, has a 1-point lead over Democrat Darren Mason, with 35 percent, and 29 percent were undecided.

Incumbent Democrat Tommy Hazouri is ahead of his challengers for At-Large Group 3 with 38 percent.

Republican Greg Rachal is second with 26 percent, Democrat James Jacobs has 12 percent and 25 percent are undecided.

Former council member Matt Carlucci leads both Harold McCart and Don Redman in the At-Large Group 4 contest.

All are Republican.

Carlucci has 43 percent, Redman 14 percent and McCart, 3 percent. The poll shows 40 percent are undecided.

In At-Large Group 5, incumbent Republican Samuel Newby has a slight edge over two competitors.

Newby has 31 percent, Democrat Chad McIntyre 29 percent and no affiliate candidate Niki Brunson 6 percent, with 34 percent undecided.

Breakdown

Out of the 962 voters surveyed, 48 percent identified as Republican, 44 percent as Democrat and 8 percent said they were either NPA or other.

Eighty percent of respondents said they were age 45 and older.

Seventy percent identified as non-Hispanic Caucasian, with 23 percent identifying as non-Hispanic African-American. Hispanics accounted for 2 percent and 5 percent said they were of another race.

Of the 962 respondents, 45 percent were male and 55 percent were female.

At least 78 percent said they had some post-high school education.

 

 

 

 

 

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