by Bradley Parsons
Staff Writer
Local television stations are expecting a tight, well–financed presidential race to pay off in advertising revenue.
The campaigns of President George Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are preparing to spend an unprecedented amount of money in their race for the country’s highest office. Local affiliates’ general managers and political strategists say much of that money will be spread around Florida.
Just over 500 Florida votes separated Bush from Al Gore in 2000. The slim margin gave Bush 27 electoral votes and the White House. The state is again expected to be bitterly contested, and both sides will make their presence felt said Ken Tonning, general manager of NBC affiliate Ch. 12 and ABC’s Ch. 25.
“Our advertising revenues will feel a substantial impact,” said Tonning.
Both campaigns will spend a large chunk of their money on television ads and direct mail, said Allie Merzer, a former advertising and marketing executive who now heads communications for the Florida Democratic Party.
“You assume that with the battlefield expected to develop in Florida, that more money is going to go to TV,” said Merzer. “Most of the money you fundraise goes toward advertising. Common sense says more money than ever going into the campaigns is going to translate into more money for advertising.”
Campaign finance reports showed Bush has raised about $150 million since his campaign’s start last May. Kerry has raised about one-tenth that amount, but his campaign is aided by privately–funded advocacy groups that have pledged to spend more than $100 million to unseat Bush.
Tonning declined to provide numbers for his station’s projected revenue. CBS affiliate Ch. 47 expects to bring in $6 to 8 million from ads associated with the campaign, said General Manager John Rafferty.
Stations across Florida are feeling the effects earlier this campaign year. The Bush-Cheney campaign spent about $900,000 to broadcast their message to state viewers. The ads are running locally on all three local affiliates.
Such an early start is unusual for an incumbent campaign, according to the affiliate heads. Allie Merzer, the communications director for the Florida Democratic Party, said the move could be a Republican response to publicity generated by the Democrats’ primary season. Florida held its primary Tuesday.
“Once the coverage of the primaries dies off, you’ll probably see a few months of quiet,” said Merzer.
Or, Merzer said, the Republicans could dig into their deep pockets to keep the ads running.
“Bush has more money than God, so maybe you’ll see the ads run from now until November,” she said.
Due to the primary coverage, Kerry has yet to spend significant money in Florida. However, so–called advocacy ads paid for by the AARP and Moveon.org have countered the Bush message.
The station managers said they expected the ads to increase when the campaign reaches its crescendo in October and November.
“Usually the rule is 45 days before the primary and 60 days before the election, that’s when advertising really picks up,” said Rafferty.
Duval County’s reputation as Republican country won’t deter the Democrats from competing in the area, said Merzer. And she said it would be a mistake for Republicans to take Jacksonville for granted. The Democratic ads will target Jacksonville’s large black population, she said.
Tonning expects the Republicans to keep presence on Jacksonville televisions. Given the state’s recent history, the incumbent cannot afford complacency, he said.
“Nobody’s going to make assumptions this year when you look at how close the election was in 2000,” said Tonning. “This is going to be a battle from now until November.”
The affiliates’ advertising budgets are counting on it.