by Bradley Parsons
Staff Writer
The next mayoral election is still 19 months away. But Florida Times-Union columnist and political observer Ron Littlepage has already outlined what he thinks could be a winning platform against incumbent John Peyton.
Appearing before the Rotary Club of South Jacksonville Wednesday, Littlepage said Peyton had weakened his chances for re-election by pushing a plan to re-insert a Navy master jet base on Jacksonville’s West side. The City’s budget struggles, a slow, post-hurricane cleanup in 2004 and the floundering county courthouse project should provide aspirants to Peyton’s office with plenty of ammunition once the campaign gets going, he said.
The mayor’s race in Jacksonville is typically decided by a primary election, which thins the field to the two top vote getters, followed by the general election, which decides the office. The 2007 primary is April 10. The election is scheduled for May 8.
“If you had asked me two months ago if the mayor is going to get credible opposition for re-election, I would have said no,” said Littlepage. “But now with Cecil Field, I think that’s changed.”
The platform described by Littlepage is almost identical to the one outlined by local Democratic Committee chairwoman Linda Whipple last week as she looked forward to the 2007 mayoral election. But Littlepage said a serious challenger would have to come from within Peyton’s Republican Party, most likely someone with a solid support base in the Westside neighborhoods surrounding Cecil.
It might seem early to be talking electoral politics. Several people have already opened campaign accounts and filed paperwork with the Supervisor of Elections Office. And, Duval County Republican Party Chairman Mike Hightower said contenders are likely already gathering forces.
“Delaney [former mayor John] started two years out. Peyton started early for the last election. That’s the rules of the game. You’ve got to get out there early if you want to be well-positioned strategically,” said Hightower.
The local Republican committee hasn’t officially ramped up its campaign machinery, but Hightower said finance teams and campaign staffers are starting to come together for most of the incumbents that could seek re-election in 2007. That group includes Peyton, Supervisor of Elections Jerry Holland, Clerk of Courts Jim Fuller, Tax Collector Mike Hogan, Property Appraiser Jim Overton and about half of the City Council. Nine members are term-limited and the other 10 may face opposition.
No matter how early he starts, Peyton is going to have a tough time duplicating his past electoral success on the Westside, said Littlepage. The area was crucial in terms of fund-raising and votes during Peyton’s primary run against a crowded field of candidates, he said.
“Peyton is in office now because of the Westside,” said Littlepage. “He wouldn’t have won the primary without their support. But he wouldn’t win on the Westside now. He’s lost a lot of his popular support and lost some of his financial backers there.”
Littlepage thinks Peyton’s outspoken support of giving Cecil Field back to the Navy will do the most electoral damage among Westside voters. Some of the Westside’s displeasure with the plan was on display during a recent town hall meeting. A crowd of about 500 people crowded Cecil Field’s Equestrian Center to complain about the possible negative effects on property values and quality of life in surrounding neighborhoods. However, Peyton received unanimous support from a meeting of the Westside Rotary Club.
Littlepage said mayoral opponents should be able to tap into popular displeasure with the City’s budget struggles in 2005 and the lagging courthouse project.
But where Littlepage sees electoral handicaps, Hightower sees evidence of Peyton’s strong leadership.
“Leadership is about making tough decisions, and this mayor has had to make some tough decisions,” said Hightower. “He had one on the courthouse, he had one on Cecil Field. And every time he’s taken the opportunity to do what’s best for the entire community.
“Mayor Peyton saw an opportunity to come together with the governor and bring 12,000 jobs and an $800 million economic infusion to Duval County. Maybe some people think that money and those jobs are not important. But, if someone from the Westside wants to run against the incumbent mayor, they’ll have to run for the whole city, not just the Westside.”