Managing Editor
Two of the three dominant Jacksonville area grocery chains appear to be outperforming their market potential, finds the new Shelby MarketCast projections.
Publix Super Markets, the area’s No. 1 grocer in market share, and Winn-Dixie Supermarkets, No. 3, are both claiming a larger share than what consumer behavior would predict, according to The Shelby Report of the Southeast trade publication.
“We are very pleased our customers recognize that we keep getting better all the time,” said Winn-Dixie Chairman Peter Lynch.
Meanwhile, No. 2 Walmart might not be taking as much of the market as its potential, finds MarketCast.
Publix had no comment and Walmart could not be reached.
The Shelby MarketCast is produced for The Shelby Report, a supermarket industry trade publication based in Gainesville, Ga.
Shelby traditionally reported market shares for supermarkets for the prior quarter, based on research by The Nielsen Co.-Trade Dimensions.
Starting with its April issue, Shelby is looking ahead rather than reporting what has already happened. It enlisted the Buxton Co. research firm, based in Fort Worth, Texas, to analyze how well food retailers have penetrated and positioned their locations within specific markets, Shelby reports.
Shelby Publisher Ron Johnston said the publication no longer had access to the actual market shares and that its customers would need to find the information from other sources.
Going forward, the MarketCasts are designed to answer the question, “Given consumers’ shopping behaviors, the stores I have in the market and their placement, what portion of the market dollars available should I be capturing?”
Johnston said the new MarketCasts will cover a larger area than did the market-share reports, which for Jacksonville covered Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. The new reports extend beyond that geographic area.
While the coverage comparisons are not apples-to-apples, he said, “there’s a trend, a direction there, that leads you to the assumption.”
He cautioned that “it’s not science.”
The new MarketCast shows that Walmart has the potential to capture 32.76 percent of the larger Jacksonville area market, followed by Publix, at 24.65 percent, and Winn-Dixie, at 20.26 percent.
However, Shelby previously reported that Publix was the top grocer, with 32.2 percent of the five-county market share, followed by Walmart at 29.7 percent and Winn-Dixie at 22.6 percent.
That indicates that Publix and Winn-Dixie are exceeding their potential, while Walmart has room to grow. Publix had 46 stores, Winn-Dixie had 45 and Walmart had 17.
Shelby reports that when a retailer exceeds its potential market share, it is “actually executing (its) operations and capitalizing on (its) potential better.”
Those that are not have “some potential to grow” their market shares.
For a closer comparison, Johnston said to look at the new and old reports for Florida, which obviously has the same geography. Doing so shows that Publix is exceeding its market potential, while Winn-Dixie and Walmart are near or at potential.
Shelby editor Lorrie Griffith said the MarketCasts would be changed out quarterly. The current analysis is for the April through June quarter.
According to Shelby, Buxton analyzes the physical placement of store locations; the dollars spent on cooking at home in given areas related to store locations; and consumer behavior that includes drive times, product selections, shopping alternatives and other factors that shoppers take into account when choosing a grocery store.“ MarketCasts are modeled estimates based on general trends in consumer behavior and overall general qualities of retailers,” Shelby reports.
The Southeast Shelby report covers 13 major metro areas throughout the Southeast as well as 11 states. Shelby also produces trade publications for the Midwest, Southwest and West and produces MarketCasts for 43 markets.
For more information, visit www.shelbypublishing.com.
Area grocery store market share
The actual market share covered Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. The potential market share covers a larger geographic area.
Source: The Shelby Report of the Southeast; Buxton Co.; The Nielsen Co.-Trade Dimensions
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