Managing Editor
IBM Corp. chief economist Philip Swan visits Jacksonville Aug. 18 to meet with Jacksonville Community Council Inc. and the Jacksonville Regional Chamber of Commerce Trustees.
Swan meets with JCCI for its Issues & Answers forum at noon at JCCI offices to present “Recession & Recovery - A Fortune 100 View.”
He meets with the chamber trustees for their quarterly meeting at 4:30 p.m. at the University Club in Riverplace Tower.
To attend the JCCI forum, e-mail [email protected]. The chamber event is invitation-only for trustees.
Swan has been at IBM, based in Armonk, N.Y., since 1974 and before that he taught at Boston University. He is responsible for developing and interpreting the global economic outlook and its implications for the information technology industry.
Swan responded to questions from the Daily Record about his presentations in Jacksonville.
What brings you to Jacksonville?
The Jacksonville Regional Chamber of Commerce has asked me to present at their quarterly Trustee meeting on Aug. 18. I’m eager to hear from your local leaders on the opportunities they see for growth and innovation. As part of my presentation, I’ll be sharing an analysis of externally available economic data to help them better understand the environment everyone is operating in.
What is your primary message to the Chamber Trustees?
Our main message is that there are tremendous opportunities for communities like Jacksonville, as smarter infrastructure like railroads and water systems become more pervasive. With stimulus investments helping to fund these projects, numerous sectors can benefit. Overall, external data is pointing to a U.S. and global economic expansion at a moderating pace in the
second half of 2010. Within that there are pockets of growth opportunity, which businesses and governments need to be ready to capture. The inclusion of intelligence into the systems that make up daily activity is where we think much of the innovation is headed.
What are the key requirements for a full recovery?
A workforce attuned to building skills that combine traditional expertise in areas like medicine and engineering with the ability to apply new technology approaches (for example, analytics) to the workplace will be important. Labor market strength is vital to full recovery as well as preparing workers to meet next generation challenges, something leaders are increasingly focused on. The impact of unemployment and underemployment are well documented, including less consumer confidence, less consumer spending, federal, state and local budget squeezes and additional pressure on the housing sector.
Which sectors will bounce back first and which might be slower to rebound?
Data show that exports and inventory accumulation have led recoveries in most countries, boosting manufacturing output, which in turn has led the recovery in business investment. Department of Labor data tell us that employment in health care, education and the IT sector have fared comparatively well. Economists are in agreement that housing has been slow to recover due to the depth of the downturn and continued weak employment. The combination of these factors is also showing that state and local governments will struggle for some time with revenue challenges.
What is your assessment and forecast for Jacksonville?
I personally don’t have in-depth knowledge of the local economy. With that said, clearly with its port, Jacksonville can reap the benefits of increased exports and imports. Also, the city’s central role in regional transportation can benefit as modernization projects get funding, thereby creating jobs and other business opportunities. Finally, the strong health care and educational institutions here can be an important source of innovation leaders can tap into.
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