Managing Editor
Economists are divided about whether the recession has ended and, if so, whether another one is here or near.
Possiby souring whatever optimism there might be, the government said last week that the economy lost momentum in the second quarter, the three months that ended in June.
It also revised its measure of gross domestic product, which is the value of the goods and services produced by the economy, to show that the recession was worse than thought.
Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Economic Research is the official signal-caller on the start and end of recessions and hasn’t said the one that started in December 2007 has ended.
Economists generally have been saying that the recovery started a year ago as the economy began growing after a year of decline.
By the way, the quarter with the deepest drop was the last three months of 2008, when the economy contracted by almost 7 percent.
University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith, who visits next month to speak at Jacksonville Community Council Inc.’s annual meeting, said this week that the pace of the recovery has slowed significantly.
“The slowdown does mean that we are more susceptible to the possibility of a double-dip recession, however I don’t think we’re going to see one,” said Snaith.
He believes the national recession ended with the second quarter of 2009, which was a year ago in June, but that the recession didn’t end in Florida until the first quarter of this year.
Snaith said a weak recovery is under way in Northeast Florida, but the labor market won’t strengthen significantly until 2011 and the unemployment rate won’t fall below 10 percent until 2012.
Most economists who live in Northeast Florida or follow its economy say growth has slowed and also that the area has had a tougher time in the recession.
“This one has hit us much harder than we are accustomed to,” said Paul Mason, an economics professor at the University of North Florida.
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