by Keith Laing
The News Service of Florida
Polls in next week’s Republican primary for governor and Democratic Senate contest have fluctuated wildly in closing days, but a new survey Thursday showed independent Senate candidate Charlie Crist and presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink could be winners come November.
Quinnipiac University’s latest survey of general election match-ups shows Sink, who once trailed Attorney General Bill McCollum by double-digits, now leading 31-29 percent in that hypothetical match-up, within the poll’s 3 percentage point margin of error.
If Naples businessman Rick Scott becomes the GOP nominee, Sink holds a 33-29 percent advantage, with independent Bud Chiles drawing support from 12 percent of voters.
Looking ahead to the November Senate race, Crist leads former House Speaker Marco Rubio 39-32 percent, with Democrat Kendrick Meek gaining 16 percent. If real estate mogul Jeff Greene wins next week’s Democratic primary, Crist gets 40 percent to Rubio’s 32 percent and Greene’s 15 percent.
Crist’s hopes are powered, however, by a stunning level of support from Democratic voters. Crist, who broke with the Republican Party in April, pulls more support among Democrats, 45 percent, than either Meek or Greene, who drew 36 and 31 percent respectively.
If that holds up, Crist will be in good shape Nov. 2, Peter Brown said.
“If Charlie Crist gets 40-plus percent of the Democrat vote in November, he’s likely to be the next U.S. senator,” he said.
“The Democratic nominee, whether it turns out to be Congressman Meek or Jeff Greene, will face a serious challenge winning the votes of Democrats in the November election,” he said.
Likewise, the biggest beneficiary of the bruising Republican primary between McCollum and Scott appears to Sink, who trailed McCollum 33 to 25 percent in a three-way race with Chiles in Quinnipiac’s June survey. At that time, Scott also led the hypothetical three-way match-up 35 to 26 percent over Sink.
Now, Sink is topping both Republican rivals, although most voters say they still don’t know enough about her to form an opinion.
“Ms. Sink has obviously benefited from all those negative ads that have gone on between Scott and McCollum,” Brown said. “No doubt about it.”
The Quinnipiac poll was conducted Aug. 11-16. Among Republicans, 807 likely primary voters were surveyed, with the findings containing a margin-of-error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points. Among Democrats, 814 likely primary voters were contacted, with the poll’s error margin 3.4 percentage points.
Brown cautioned that Sink’s “jump hasn’t been that large” and that 53 percent of the poll’s respondents said they did not know her. That could give the eventual Republican nominee an opportunity to regain momentum, he
said.
“Once the primary is over, I assume next Wednesday, the race is to define Alex Sink,” he said. “(The 53 percent) might be the most important number in the governor’s race, not the horse race.”
For either Meek or Greene, Brown said the challenge will be pulling Democratic voters back home. Rubio will likely try to cut Crist’s 22 percent support among Republicans too, he said, but for each side, it will be delicate dance.
“If you’re the eventual Democratic nominee, how do you go about cutting Gov. Crist’s numbers among Democrats without raising them among independents, who are theoretically less ideological,” he said. “If you’re Rubio, how do you go about going after Crist that doesn’t help” Meek or Greene, he added.
“One would assume, given the really difficult dynamics of running a three-way race, that you have to very be careful what you say about your opponent,” Brown said.
“The Democrat, whoever he is, who wants to win back Democrats has to be careful not to make an ideology argument, saying ‘oh he’s just not liberal enough to be a Democrat’ because that will help Crist among independents and Republicans,” he said.
The Quinnipiac poll also measured the popularity of President Barack Obama, who was raising money for Democrats this week in Miami. Forty-seven percent said they approved of Obama’s job performance, up from 40 percent in June as most of the state focused on the Gulf Coast oil spill.