by Karen Brune Mathis
Managing Editor
It might be low growth, and it may take longer than first thought, but it’s growth just the same, and that’s enough for the state to say that the Florida economic recovery began in the current fiscal year.
The next fiscal year, starting in July, should see a “sustainable recovery” with normal growth, although at low levels.
The information comes from the “Florida Recovery Timeline” by the Florida Legislature Office of Economic and Demographic Research.
It’s consistent with what Sean Snaith, director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida College of Business Administration, has been saying.
Snaith forecasted the recession would end in Florida in the first quarter and has been saying that the Florida “recovery, like the national recovery, would be long and drawn out.”
Snaith has been describing a “gravy-boat” recovery, saying he doesn’t see a V-shaped rebound, in which the economy recovers as steeply as it plunged.
Instead, he expects a shallower and longer recovery before the economy grows strongly again.
The economic and demographic research office’s timeline was attached to short- and long-term estimates released last week for income, employment, construction, vehicles, visitors and population.
The timeline projections were from the summer.
The economic and demographic research office said last week that Florida’s recovery from the worst economic downturn since the 1930s is going to take a little longer than previously expected.
It said unemployment is likely to remain in double digits until the second quarter of 2012, reflecting the depth of the recession and the challenges facing a swift recovery.
For fiscal 2011-12, the office has predicted that most Florida economic indicators will return to normal or accelerated growth rates, that population growth will remain weak but begin to grow slowly, and that the state unemployment rate will improve slowly.
Compare that to its summary of fiscal 2010-11, headlined “Florida recovery begins flat to low growth”:
• National Gross Domestic Product has a 3 percent growth.
• Florida’s population has very low growth.
• Florida’s personal income has weak growth.
• Florida’s employment has weak growth.
• Florida’s unemployment rate is only slightly off the peak.
• Florida’s private housing starts enter positive territory.
• The number of Florida visitors grows weakly.
The national recession began in December 2007 and ended officially in June 2009.
Reviewing fiscal 2008-09 and 2009-10, the economic research office summarized in a headline that “Florida experiences recessionary-like conditions, declining growth.”
For fiscal 2009-10, it said:
• National Gross Domestic Product had negative growth in 2008-09 and less than 1 percent growth in 2009-10.
• National consumer spending had negative growth in 2008-09 and turned weakly positive in 2009-10.
• National job growth decreased in both years.
• National wages and salaries declined in both years.
• Florida had negative population growth in both years.
• Florida personal income declined in both years.
• Florida unemployment declined in both years.
• Florida’s employment rate moved into double-digits.
• Florida housing starts declined in both years.
• The number of Florida visitors declined in 2008-09 and turned weakly positive in 2009-10.
Snaith has been calling the labor markets “a scar on the economy, left over from the economic and financial trauma we have endured, that would be very slow to fade.”
Snaith predicts that the unemployment rate will remain above 10 percent until the end of 2012 and that payrolls won’t return to their pre-recession levels until the first quarter of 2015.
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