by Karen Brune Mathis
Managing editor
It’s been rough in Jacksonville’s job market since the recession began in December 2007, but the pain likely seemed the worst from mid-2008 to mid-2009.
There’s a good reason. Between June 2008 and July 2009, larger employers in Northeast Florida, and primarily in Duval County, alerted the state they intended to lay off more than 2,800 people.
That accounted for 80 percent of the layoffs planned by bigger companies since the recession began and attracted public attention.
“We started to see the effects of the recession later than the official start,” said Candace Moody, vice president of communications with WorkSource, the regional job service. “It takes awhile for companies to understand the trend and form a plan for reductions in force.”
The pain continues, but has been softening, according to a study of the layoff numbers posted by employers subject to a federal law requiring them to notify the state of job cuts.
An analysis of Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification notices filed with the state since January 2008 shows that the area’s larger employers, with the majority in Duval County, notified the state that they planned to lay off almost 3,500 workers. The bulk of the planned cuts were reported in the 13 summer-to-summer months from 2008 to 2009.
Actually, more layoffs were reported but two big postings came from public school contracts that changed hands. Those jobs were expected to be picked up by the new vendors and the cuts were not included in this analysis.
Manufacturing jobs along with finance and insurance workers were hardest hit, the numbers show. In fact, they accounted for almost 66 percent — two-thirds — of the total jobs expected to be lost. The state was notified of more than 1,200 area manufacturing layoffs and about 1,100 finance and insurance cuts.
After that, the highest layoff numbers were reported in retailing, at more than 400, and in the professional, scientific and technical area, at more than 300. Following those were wholesale trade and transportation and warehousing; information; health care and social assistance; and a category of “other.”
Employers with 100 or more employees are covered by the WARN act, which is designed to alert workers of impending large-scale layoffs, shutdowns or other job cuts covered by the law. Because WARN notices don’t cover all companies or circumstances, the true layoff numbers in the Jacksonville area appear to be much larger.
The state intends to issue January unemployment numbers and rates this week. In December, the unemployment rate was 11.3 percent in the Jacksonville region that includes Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties.
That rate was the same as in November, but up from 7.4 percent in December 2008 and up from 4.3 percent in December 2007 as the recession began.
Moreover, those December numbers showed big drops in area employment. Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation statistics show that employment in the five counties fell by more than 5,000 jobs from November, by more than 30,000 from December 2008 and by more than 40,000 from December 2007.
Both employed and unemployed workers, as well as employers, wonder whether the worst is over. Based on the WARN notices, it’s too close to call.
Through last week, Jacksonville companies notified the state of more than 200 layoffs in transportation and warehousing, wholesale trade, retail and manufacturing.
That’s almost even with the number of job layoffs posted last year this time but higher than the total number announced in early 2008.
Carol Dole, assistant professor of economics at Jacksonville University, believes the economy is stabilizing. “Firms are coming to grips with the ‘new’ normal. The average consumer seems to be consuming less. Firms figure they can produce the same amount of output with fewer workers.”
Still, there are unknowns, such as when to expect recoveries in the residential and commercial real estate markets.
“I’d think by July we’ll have a better picture,” Dole said. “At this point, I’d have to stick with a better 2010.”
Moody said she expected hiring to rise as much as 20 percent during the first quarter of the year over a flat quarter a year ago. “Employers are reluctant to shed jobs, but even more reluctant to hire people unless they are absolutely sure they can retain them,” she said.
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