by Karen Brune Mathis
Managing Editor
Publix, which claims the No. 1 spot for market share among Jacksonville supermarkets, continues to outperform its potential, according to the latest analysis by an industry trade publication.
The Shelby Report of the Southeast’s MarketCast analysis for October shows that Publix, with 32.56 percent of area market share, could be expected to take just 24.19 percent of the market, based on industry and consumer factors.
At the same time, No. 2 Walmart’s Supercenters account for 25 percent of the market share, but has the potential for almost 33.2 percent.
Meanwhile, No. 3 Winn-Dixie, with a market share of 17.44 percent, saw its potential rise slightly to 19.09 percent in October from 18.8 percent in July.
The Shelby MarketCast is released quarterly and is produced for The Shelby Report, a supermarket industry trade publication based in Gainesville, Ga.
Buxton Co., a Texas-based research firm, began in April to analyze how well food retailers have penetrated and positioned their locations within
specific markets.
The MarketCast reports measure the potential for a grocer to grow its market share within communities.
According to Shelby, when a retailer exceeds its potential, it is “actually executing (its) operations and capitalizing on (its) potential better.”
Shelby said that those companies whose market shares don’t reach their potential have opportunities to grow.
Buxton analyzes the placement of stores, the money spent on cooking at home in given areas related to those locations and the concentration of buying power relative to store addresses. It also analyzes consumer behavior such as drive time from home, shopping alternatives, the brand of the retailer and product selection at the stores, among other factors.
MarketCasts are modeled estimates based on general trends in consumer behavior and overall general qualities of retailers, and are not actual market share estimates, said Shelby.
Shelby calculated its most recent actual market shares in July.
Together, the top three grocers have 106 stores and continue to account for more than 75 percent of the market, while having the potential for almost 76.5 percent.
The remaining 25 percent of the market is shared by at least 11 other grocers, still led by Food Lion at 5.65 percent. The others account for 3 percent or less
each.
Among those, BJ’s Wholesale Club appears to be outperforming its potential, accounting for 2.81 percent of the market, but with a MarketCast potential for 0.94 percent.
For the October issue, Shelby also highlighted the buying power of the Caucasian market in the states it tracks in the Southeast.
In Florida, Shelby found Caucasian buying power was almost $554.5 billion in 2009 and is projected at $673.1 billion by 2014.
Shelby’s buying power information is from “The Multicultural Economy 2009” from the Selig Center for Economic Growth at the University of Georgia Terry College of Business.
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