By Keith Laing
The News Service of Florida
Democrat Kendrick Meek is still languishing in third place in the latest poll of the high-profile Florida U.S. Senate race, but he is doing just well enough to make the math increasingly difficult for independent Gov. Charlie Crist to overtake frontrunner Marco Rubio.
Rubio, a Republican, maintains a comfortable lead over rivals Crist and Meek, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll. The poll shows Rubio with a 44-30 percent lead among likely voters over Crist, running as an independent, with Meek at 22 percent. The overall results are basically unchanged from a Sept. 30 poll by the same organization, but Meek has reversed a 46-43 percent lead among a constituency Crist needs to do well with to win: Democrats.
In Wednesday’s poll, Meek beat Crist among Democrats 50 to 38 percent. That means Crist would need more than the 42 percent of independents he is getting in the poll, said Quinnipiac Polling Director Peter Brown.
“As the clock ticks down to Election Day, there is no evidence that Marco Rubio’s lead is narrowing,” Brown said in a statement. “Gov. Charlie Crist’s best chance for victory all along required that he outpoll Meek among Democrats and get half the independent vote. He is doing neither.”
Barring a development such as Meek leaving the race, which he has said he isn’t planning to do, Brown said the numbers do not add up for Crist. He added that the numbers add up even worse for Meek, who has bristled when Crist has explicitly suggested he can win, while the Miami Democrat can’t.
“Anything is possible since there are still three weeks left in the campaign, but it appears Rubio’s opponents will need an earth-shaking development to deny him the U.S. Senate seat,” said Brown.
Perhaps realizing that, Crist took his frequent “I can win” appeals a step further, saying Democrats voting for Meek were wasting their votes.
“It sure looks like it,” Crist said when asked if a vote for Meek was really a vote for Rubio earlier this week.
Meek’s campaign did not immediately comment on the Quinnipiac poll, though Meek has argued that it is Crist who can’t win because the governor – who was a Republican as recently as April – cannot win over as many Democrats as he can.
“The governor had his chance to beat Marco Rubio. He spent millions of dollars on television and he still hasn’t come close to him,” said Meek this week in a national interview on MSNBC. “I think it’s time for those that are saying ‘who has the best chance here,’ I have the best chance of winning. That’s the reason why we have so many of these big Democrats that are coming here to support my candidacy.”
Crist continued his outreach to Democratic voters Wednesday, touting the endorsement of Robert Kennedy Jr., who his campaign called a “prominent environmentalist and Democratic leader.” Crist planned to announce the endorsement in Deerfield Beach Wednesday with the son of the former Democratic U.S. senator and slain presidential candidate.
However, the math involving the independent vote, which Crist had been expected to win handily, is also problematic for Crist. The indie governor leads independents in the Quinnipiac poll 42 percent to 32 to 19 for Rubio and Meek, respectively.
That coupled with the former House Speaker’s “stranglehold on the Republican vote,” give him a formidable position a week before early voting starts, said Brown. Rubio wins 85 percent of the Republicans in the poll.
Elsewhere in the poll, respondents also said they disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance by a 54-43 percent margin, a slight improvement for the president from Oct. 1 when 56 percent disapproved.
Still, Brown said the president’s upside down approval ratings also bode well for Rubio.
“Rubio has tried to make this election between himself and President Obama’s policies, not between himself and Crist or Meek. Given the attitudes of likely voters, that has proven to be a smart strategy that appears likely to bear fruit on Election Day,” said Brown.
The poll surveyed 1,055 likely voters Oct. 6-10 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.