By Karen Brune Mathis
Managing Editor
Returned by popular demand, the Association for Corporate Growth North Florida Chapter presented “Ten Ahead: Predictions for the Upcoming Decade” Friday at the Crowne Plaza on the Downtown Southbank. The group featured three executives to venture their projections about federal, state and local activities. It was moderated by Foley & Lardner lawyer Michael Kirwan.
National outlook: Philip McBride Johnson
Attorney, Skadden, Slate, Meagher & Flom
Past chair, Commodity Futures Trading Commission
A new Floridian from Washington D.C., by way of his move to Amelia Island Plantation, Philip McBride Johnson said the “core of the central city is beginning to melt,” explaining that mobility and communications make it possible for companies to locate their headquarters wherever they want rather than in the same building, block, city or state as their production plants or major employment centers.
“This is a golden opportunity,” he told the room of Jacksonville executives. Referring to the snow, ice and cold temperatures throughout much of the U.S. north of Florida, Johnson said now was the time for area corporate recruiters to “pitch as hard as possible to these Fortune 100 companies.”
With CEOs and other C-level executives able to travel more easily than in years past when necessary to visit sites and to keep in constant communications through technology, “there’s no concept too big for you to be considering.”
State outlook: G. Donovan Brown
Associate, Tallahassee
Foley & Lardner
Brown, who was a special assistant to former Gov. Jeb Bush from 2001-05, said the projected $3.6 billion deficit in the state budget, and no more federal stimulus money, will force the Florida Legislature and the new administration of Gov. Rick Scott to patch holes. “You’ll probably see a little friction between the legislative and executive branches,” he said.
Brown also outlined several other issues.
• Conservative leadership. Brown said the state Legislature has become more conservative.
• Mergers. Scott proposes to reduce the number of state departments. “I think we’ll see a merger of a number of agencies.”
• Efficiencies through a reduction in state regulations. “Now is the time to look at reducing regulation.”
• Government privatization and contracting.
• A more transparent state budget, which is $70.4 billion. “You’re gong to see leaders step up and aim for that goal.”
• Focus on fraud and waste. “You have to root out fraud,” he said.
• Water and energy. “I think we’ll see a water and energy policy.”
• Rail. Scott supports privately built rail lines. “Perhaps one day Jacksonville will be the transportation hub it wants to be.”
• Tort reform. “I think it will finally happen.”
Jacksonville outlook: Jerry Mallot
Executive vice president, Jacksonville Regional Chamber of Commerce
President, Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership
As Mallot offered his top 10, he also asked Johnson to join the chamber’s headquarters recruitment team, adding that such efforts also will need help from the state and that Jacksonville needs greater nonstop air service.
Mallot presented his top 10 predictions for the decade in reverse order.
10. Scott will be the most aggressive governor in job creation since Bush. “We’ve hit rock bottom and we’ve got to turn it around.”
9. The unemployment rate will drop below 5 percent by 2016 and it will be below 10 percent by December this year. “By 2016 we’re going to have a tight workforce and by 2018 we will be recruiting people,” he said.
8. A nuclear career will be located at Mayport Naval Station by 2020.
7. The financial services, professional and business services, logistics and medical services industries will lead employment growth. “You are going to see a booming economy in Northeast Florida in the next 12 months.” Jacksonville’s Real Gross Metro Product will soon match the peak it reached in the middle of the past decade and continue to rise, according to a University of Central Florida report.
6. Construction and real estate will boom by 2017. Also, office employees are increasingly telecommuting. “Ten to 30 percent who were in offices are working from home,” he said.
5. The Alliance Florida Center at Cecil Commerce Center will be a booming business park with more than 5 million square feet of space and other industrial parks will also be successful.
4. The Jacksonville Jaguars, who were announced in 1993 and began playing in 1995, will still be in Jacksonville and will have won a Super Bowl. Mallot said that’s what owner Wayne Weaver wants.
3. By 2020, Downtown will be the place for business and housing. “We have enormous commitment to redevelop Downtown,” he said. “It’s going to take real investment from the private sector and partnership with the public sector.”
2. The port of Jacksonville will be dredged to 48 feet.
And his No. 1 prediction?
“The Green Bay Packers will win the Super Bowl in 2011.”