by Brandon Larrabee
The News Service of Florida
New numbers released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday provide the clearest picture yet of which areas of the state could gain new representation, and which current incumbents could face radically new districts, in 2012.
The unveiling of the numbers paves the way for a two-year argument over districts that will culminate in next year’s legislative session.
Further complicating the always politically fraught issue are the new “Fair Districts” amendments approved by the voters last year and the first Democratic administration in Washington overseeing the once-a-decade redistricting process since the approval of the Voting Rights Act.
“My direction from (Senate) President Mike Haridopolos is to engage in the most transparent, open and interactive redistricting process in America,” said Senate Reapportionment Chair Don Gaetz (R-Niceville) in a statement released by the Legislature.
Likely to be hardest hit when the new maps are drawn: The immediate Tampa Bay area, which has two congressional seats with too few voters and also has several state House and Senate seats that are too
small.
Several coastal legislative seats in Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties will need to expand to take on new voters, and the Panhandle could also see dwindling influence at the Capitol when the new seats are drawn.
Meanwhile, the central and north-central part of the state could pick up some additional influence.
“We’re going to see some more districts carved out of the heartland of Florida,” said Dan Smith, a political science professor at the University of Florida.
The most overpopulated congressional seat is currently held by U.S. Rep. Richard Nugent, who represents a district stretching from Polk County to Levy County that is now 33.5 percent larger than it should be.
All congressional districts are required to be roughly the same size under U.S. Supreme Court rulings.
Rep. Connie Mack’s Southwest Florida district and the Central Florida seat held by Rep. Dennis Ross are among the other seats with large overpopulation.
The Miami-area district of Rep. David Rivera, a freshman facing ethics questions, is also likely to significantly change before he faces voters again.
The most dramatically undersized congressional districts are all urban – those represented by Rep. C.W. Young’s seat in Pinellas County; Rep. Frederica Wilson’s Miami-based district; and Rep. Corrine Brown’s district, an odd-shaped heavily black district that runs from Jacksonville to Orlando.
In the state Senate, the most overpopulated districts belong to Sen. Alan Hays (R-Umatilla) and Sen. Ronda Storms (R-Valrico), both of whose districts are more than a fifth larger than they should be.
The districts most below the ideal size are represented by Sen. Dennis Jones (R-Seminole) and Sen. Chris Smith (D-Fort Lauderdale).
More than half of the state’s 120 House districts – 64 – are overpopulated or under populated by at least 10 percent when compared to the ideal district size.
Of those, 24 will have to lose real estate when the maps are redrawn, including three districts that are oversized by more than 50 percent.
That includes the seat currently held by Rep. Will Weatherford (R-Wesley Chapel), who chairs the House Redistricting Committee and is set to be speaker when lawmakers from the new districts take their seats after the 2012 elections.
The most overpopulated district in the House is currently represented by Rep. Stephen Precourt (R-Orlando); his 41st District is 61.1 percent larger than it should be.
The most underpopulated belongs to Rep. Reggie Fullwood (D-Jacksonville), a freshman lawmaker whose 15th District is 20.5 percent below the benchmark.
Smith said the large number of seats whose lines now have to be altered, and the fact that Republicans now dominate the House, could lead to interparty conflicts under the new lines that will have to be drawn.
“We are definitely going to see incumbents facing off with incumbents,” said Smith.
Unlike the congressional districts in a time of growing and shifting populations, he noted, “you don’t get any extra seats when it comes to the state House and state Senate.”