by David Chapman
Staff Writer
Two weeks remain in the race to become Jacksonville’s next mayor.
For candidates Alvin Brown, a Democrat, and Mike Hogan, a Republican, it’s the last opportunity to raise money and spread their messages before the May 17 general election.
On the fiscal side, through April 22, Brown has raised $309,509 in monetary contributions as well as $315,519 of in-kind contributions. Brown’s expenses were $234,329.
Hogan is well ahead, at $827,617 in monetary contributions and $32,194 of in-kind contributions. Hogan spent $654,946.
The last period for campaign reports is April 23-May 12.
Both candidates have a finite amount of time to put such funds to use swaying voters on the merits of their leadership. Early voting began Monday.
“Our campaign is going incredibly well,” said Brown in responses sent Monday by Meredith O’Malley Johnson, his campaign spokeswoman.
“Our message resonates with every group we meet,” he said.
Hogan and his team are similarly enthused heading toward May 17.
“We are working hard as ever to share Mike’s detailed plan to cut wasteful spending and put Jacksonville back to work,” said Erin Isaac, spokeswoman for the Hogan campaign.
For political campaigns, the two-week mark is often a critical time, said Jacksonville University political science professor Stephen Baker. It’s a time when voters are more likely to pay attention to the issues and candidates’ message before hitting the polls, he said.
“It’s almost like buying a new car,” said Baker. “You keep it in the back of your mind until you start to hear something go wrong with it. Then you cram and do all your research quickly before going out and making a purchase.”
For undecided voters, advertisements can influence decisions, but the campaign spokeswomen said not to expect negative ads.
When asked Monday if they will use negative ads in the closing weeks, Isaac said “no” while Brown’s response was “we see no need to ‘go negative’ in this campaign.”
Such tactics can quickly influence poll numbers, said Baker, although they can backfire and “blow up in your face.”
Often, he said, campaigns begin to use negative tactics when their poll numbers begin to dip. Other times, he said, sides wait for the other to take the first shot before retaliating and launching a full-fledged negative blitz.
Brown said voters should expect to see “a lot more” campaign advertising through May 17, while Isaac said “stay tuned” for advertising over the next two weeks.
Hogan took 34 percent of the vote in the March 22 first election, followed by Brown at 25 percent.
Despite Hogan’s base, Baker said he expects a closer-than-expected race because of Brown’s success in courting individual groups — some across the political aisle — to side with him since the first election.
“We definitely have momentum going into these last two weeks,” said Brown. “In recent weeks, our support has been increasingly bipartisan.”
Isaac said the remaining two weeks will be spent spreading Hogan’s message of cutting wasteful spending and creating jobs.
Turnout was below 30 percent for the first election. Baker said he expects turnout to improve to 35 percent for the May 17 election, and he expects that a higher turnout rate would help Brown more than Hogan.
As of this morning, 44 percent of Duval County’s registered voters were Democrats and 37 percent were Republicans.
356-2466