by Fred Seely
Editor
Readers love lists of things. Particularly lists of bad things.
A few months ago, you got this headline in local media: “Jacksonville worst real estate market.”
The story added a bigger insult: the Northeast Florida area had just beaten out gloom-and-doom Detroit!
At last month’s Sales and Marketing Council meeting, Florida Realtors economist John Tuccillo warned that what you read and hear may need further investigation.
“We aren’t going to let other people tell our story because that story seems to always be negative,” he said. “If the real estate professional has the facts, then we can combat what others are saying.”
The attention-grabbing story was true but the media reporting seems to have taken one press release without looking at other lists.
The story in question was from an analysis by a data-producing company named Clear Capital, which compares housing prices in specific areas. Clear Capital is a well-regarded company and its September data showed that Jacksonville/North Florida, indeed, was at the bottom of the pile. The number was based on sales in the previous four months compared to the three months prior to that.
A closer analysis reveals the months in questions were the hottest in this area compared to some of the nicest. Sales here traditionally have been good in the spring, off in the summer.
Other surveys — all based on numbers gleaned from elsewhere — don’t reveal such a sad story.
In the Standard and Poor/Case-Shiller survey of the weakest 10 markets, there’s no mention of the Jacksonville area. Nor in the First American CoreLogic survey. Nor in Forbes (which lists Jacksonville in the top 10 in sales.) FNC Inc. only counts the worst five and there’s no sign of Northeast Florida. Same with Fiserv.
Jacksonville/Northeast Florida does pop up in some “worst” surveys. Moody’s is based on price and is heavily Florida-based: we’re behind only Miami, Orlando and Fort Lauderdale. Housingpredictor.com, which bases its numbers on drop in value, puts Jacksonville at No. 9.
If you’re publishing your own list, you might be wise to look at a number of surveys before singling out just one.
Of the eight “lists” that were available last month, it appears that the toughest places for agents would be Tucson, Las Vegas, Indianapolis, Riverside, Calif.; and almost anywhere in South Florida.
But don’t believe all you read: one list has Manhattan as No. 6, just ahead of Snooki and her pals at Ocean City, N.J.