When it comes to home construction and residential sales in Jacksonville, if well-informed, even the pessimist would see the glass half full. Although it would be difficult to balance the scale of opinion, based on media reports, if one were to drill down the information and assemble the facts, it’s pretty hard to deny. Jacksonville, Florida, is a place to watch for the next decade.
Location, location, location. Nothing’s changed, except that Jacksonville, for a variety of reasons is poised to be one of the best investment opportunities.
Since Florida has been the hardest hit, wouldn’t that mean the bubble has been erased? We have overcorrected back to 2001 prices, which to me means we are poised for growth.
Think about a few things:
Right now our unemployment is at 10.4 percent, the median home price is $130,000, and median household income is $45,000.
With the emphasis on our port, we stand to gain jobs. With more jobs, the kids living with parents will be working. The first thing young adults want to do is move out, into their own place. Either rent or, due to low prices, buy their first home. Often buying more house for less than what their parents paid.
Although we are home to some Fortune 500 companies like Winn-Dixie, Fidelity and CSX, we are a second-tier city. Small companies moving to Jacksonville have more impact on our city than they have on a large city. Small companies have more impact on our economy.
We are fortunate to have an ocean and a river running through our city. We are also fortunate to have an administration that ran on the fact that our port was our best opportunity for job growth and our leaders are making it known we want the business.
State Rep. Lake Ray is carrying our water to the Legislature. He understands it as well as anyone. Now that he has replaced Lad Daniels as the president of the First Coast Manufacturers Association, he is even further plugged into the opportunities, impact and resolution.
When he says that half of all products entering Florida come through Georgia, it makes you think.
Bottom line, I think the stories we read about our problems are by people competing for the same audience. I think the good news we hear has a strong basis. With the population loss in places like Detroit, don’t be surprised if we don’t see a population explosion in Jacksonville.
With that growth, I think we will see home sales up, the need for home construction climb and home rentals will continue to be strong.
There may still be some short-term pain, but I think the long-term gain will be worth it.
We as an industry need to be well-educated on the issues, we need to be prepared for the opportunities, and we need to manage expectations.
My glass is half full and I’m here for the long haul. You with me?
– Jim Bailey is publisher of Realty/Builder Connection and president of Bailey Publishing & Communications Inc.