A monthly survey by the University of North Florida’s Local Economic Indicators Project found activity contracting in July at Jacksonville-area manufacturers, with continued pessimism about future conditions.
A Purchasing Managers’ Index derived from the survey of manufacturing businesses in Northeast Florida was at 46.2 in July, lower than the 47.3 PMI in June.
A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the economy.
“Multiple subindexes, including new orders, new export orders, backlogs of work, input purchases, material inventories, and employment, registered well below 50, showing broad-based weakness in demand and production pipelines,” UNF economist Albert Loh said in his monthly report on the survey.
The survey’s Business Activity Outlook was at 42, “indicating that a significantly larger share of local manufacturers expect business activity to decline rather than increase over the next 12 months,” Loh said.
He said there were several reasons for caution among the businesses.
“Persistent tariff uncertainty, slowing global trade, and soft market conditions are weighing on business confidence,” he said.
Cutting jobs
The survey’s employment index registered 45, signaling more manufacturers are reducing headcounts rather than adding staff.
Loh said the weak employment index is mirrored by a monthly national survey from the Institute for Supply Management.
“ISM noted that none of the six largest U.S. manufacturing sectors reported employment growth, and for every company discussing hiring, two mentioned reducing staff,” he said.
“Layoffs were identified as the primary means of cutting headcount, underscoring that these are not just hiring freezes but active workforce reductions.”
Continued headwinds
Jacksonville area manufacturers are preparing for continued headwinds in the months ahead, Loh said.
“While the area’s strong transportation infrastructure and port access provide long-term advantages, current conditions suggest that the remainder of 2025 may see subdued growth unless there is a rebound in domestic and export demand,” he said.
“Looking toward August 2025 and beyond, much will depend on clarity in tariff policy, global economic stability, and whether U.S. manufacturing demand can transition from stabilization to expansion.”