A monthly survey of Northeast Florida manufacturers by the University of North Florida’s Local Economic Indicators Project found activity continued to contract in October, and employment in the sector continued to decline.
Because of the government shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Florida Department of Commerce have not updated labor market data since September, when they released their reports for August.
However, the UNF survey produced an employment index of 49 in October, continuing a trend of declining employment among Jacksonville area manufacturers.
An index below 50 indicates contraction and a reading above 50 shows expansion.
The survey’s Purchasing Managers’ Index, which reflects overall manufacturing activity, registered 47.9 in October, the eighth straight month below 50.
“This slowdown reflects continued caution among manufacturers as they adjust production and purchasing levels in response to weaker demand and persistent cost pressures,” UNF economist Albert Loh said in his monthly report on the survey.
“The lower reading suggests that firms are operating efficiently but conservatively by keeping inventory lean, limiting new hiring, and carefully managing input costs amid an uncertain business climate,” he said.
Loh said the employment reading “indicates that most firms are maintaining current staffing levels, but few are adding new positions.”
Loh said other sub-indexes in the Jacksonville Economic Monitoring Survey “paint a picture of steady but restrained industrial activity.”
“Production and new orders both declined slightly, while backlogs continued to shrink, reflecting a softer order pipeline. Export orders remained weak, influenced by ongoing tariff tensions and cooling global demand,” he said.
“On the cost side, input prices remained elevated — particularly for aluminum, copper, and chemicals — even as steel prices eased,” he said.
The survey’s business activity outlook measured 50 in October, indicating manufacturers expect conditions to be unchanged over the next 12 months, Loh said.
“A neutral reading suggests that while local manufacturers are not pessimistic, they are also not confident enough to anticipate growth in the coming year,” he said.
Loh sees some reasons for cautious optimism in the survey results, including indicators of stable production costs and reliable supply chain performance, which he attributed in part to Jacksonville’s strong logistics infrastructure.
“Still, risks remain: tariff pressures, global trade friction, and elevated borrowing costs continue to weigh on business confidence, while talk of a potential recession adds to the uncertainty,” he said.