Jacksonville commercial real estate firms say in their Q4 2025 industry reports that the Northeast Florida office, industrial and retail markets are resilient and adjusting to economic conditions, with the benefit of population growth and the area’s expanding reputation on the national landscape.
They say 2026 will be a stabilizing and “normalizing” year.
Commercial real estate is the economic portrait of offices, industrial centers and retail stores.
Tariffs, interest rates, consumer confidence and AI are the big picture.
The Northeast Florida market comes into focus with industry snapshots leading into 2026 that show a sharper focus on increased demand due to population growth, diversification and Jacksonville’s tracking on the national economic radar.
As the Jacksonville area builds on its base and also attracts more employers, distribution centers, companies and retailers that operate on the national horizon, real estate professionals are identifying, developing and calibrating the properties to provide the supply to meet the demands.
Retail vacancy rates rose slightly over the year as more space was developed and the market stabilized, according to Colliers and NAI Hallmark, which track the industry in Northeast Florida.
The market also is prepared for growth, they say, based on Northeast Florida’s economic fundamentals.
“Jacksonville’s retail sector maintained a low 4.8% vacancy in the fourth quarter of 2025, despite the addition of nearly 600,000 square feet of new construction throughout the year,” wrote Colliers in its fourth-quarter 2025 market report.
Population growth, rising return-to-office workers and higher median household incomes combine as dynamics to support higher consumer spending and retail demand, it wrote.
“Jacksonville’s rapid population growth continued to drive a strong retail leasing market in Q4,” wrote NAI Hallmark.
Colliers said the market saw more than 2 million square feet of retail leasing from new and renewing tenants.
“Backed by a diversified economy and strategic growth initiatives, Jacksonville enters 2026 as a compelling destination for long-term retail investment,” it wrote.
Colliers claims that Jacksonville has cemented its status as a national leader in retail growth, “consistently ranking among the top 20 U.S. markets for new supply over the past five years.”
It says about 600,000 square feet of retail space was completed between the fourth quarters of 2024 and 2025, with another 670,000 square feet in development.
That development is largely pre-leased.
Key projects include Walmart Supercenter at Oakleaf Plantation and several new Publix stores scheduled to open in 2026.
Colliers and NAI Hallmark noted the lease signed in the fourth quarter by Harris Teeter for a 61,204-square-foot store in East Arlington at Atlantic North Shopping Center at northwest Kernan and Atlantic boulevards.
Harris Teeter also is speculated as the unidentified grocer looking at two St. Johns County sites.
“We’re seeing both national chains and local concepts compete aggressively for space, particularly in high-performing submarkets like St. Johns County,” wrote NAI Hallmark Senior Associate Tiffany Wein, speaking in general and not specifically about Harris Teeter.
NAI Hallmark found that St. Johns County, the second-largest retail market in Northeast Florida with 13.9 million square feet of space, has a 2% vacancy rate.
The rate was almost double that, at 3.9%, in Southside, the top market by inventory.
NAI Hallmark said the overall 4.8% vacancy rate hovered close to the national average and is expected to remain there as supply remains constricted in Northeast Florida.
Wein said the metro area represents just 0.5% of the U.S. population but accounted for more than 5% of retail demand across the country in 2025.
She said it was “a tenfold multiplier that speaks volumes about the market’s momentum.”
“This is a reflection of Jacksonville’s rapid population growth, favorable business climate, and the confidence retailers have in the market’s trajectory.”
Depending on how it’s measured, the amount of largely speculative industrial space that hit the market in 2025 totaled up to 7 million square feet, according to fourth-quarter industry reports from area commercial real estate firms.
That drove up rents, as landlords asked premium rates for the new space.
It also boosted vacancies, “primarily due to numerous large speculative projects reaching completion remaining fully vacant,” reported the Cushman & Wakefield firm.
Overall vacancy rates rose to a range of 9.2% to 11%, up substantially from the roughly 5% rate just a year before.
But firms noted that the pipeline has slowed and just under a million square feet of industrial space is expected to be completed and ready for tenant build-out in 2026.
“The market is quickly approaching a significant inflection point,” wrote the Colliers real estate firm.
“The construction pipeline is set to clear,” it reported.
“With no additional deliveries scheduled for the remainder of 2026, the market will shift from a phase of oversupply to one of absorption.”
That means tenants will lease up what’s available.
Colliers says there are tenants looking for an estimated 9.5 million square feet of space in the market.
“This scarcity of new development will create a definitive balance between supply and demand, as the 9.5 million square feet of active tenants in the market begin absorbing space in the coming year.”
Colliers said those active tenants need an average of 100,000 square feet of space.
CBRE reported that during 2025, there were 213 leases totaling 6.3 million square feet of space, down from 236 leases for 7.6 million square feet the year before.
Just over half of the 2025 deals were tenants renewing their leases.
It said the average lease size was almost 30,000 square feet, considered a relatively modest size, “with the lack of large users (over 100,000 sq. ft.) in the market impacting both absorption and vacancy.”
CBRE found that there are choices for those large users. It said 56 existing buildings along with two under development can accommodate a user of more than 100,000 square feet of space.
And 11 existing buildings can accommodate a user needing more than 300,000 square feet of space.
“We are seeing increased demand from regional companies, highlighted by robust third-party logistics activity and the execution of new leases exceeding 100,000 square feet this past quarter,” wrote NAI Hallmark Senior Associate Camden Padgett.
Vacancy rates were reported at up to almost 12% in the West Jacksonville market, the largest with up to 71 million square feet of industrial space in the area.
The North Jacksonville market, the second largest at up to almost 52 million square feet of space, saw about a 10% vacancy rate.
South Jacksonville, the third largest at up to 33.5 million square feet, was up to 10.5% vacant.
Several firms reported that one of the larger leases in the fourth quarter was Stellar Energy for 120,842 square feet at 2737 Ignition Drive in Park 295 in Northwest Jacksonville.
“The sector is poised for a balanced 2026 as construction slows,” Colliers reported.
Foundry Commercial reported there is 2.2 million square feet of industrial space under construction while “overall, there has been a broad deceleration in leasing activity year-over-year and across all submarkets.”
The year and beyond look favorable, it found.
“Even as the Jacksonville industrial market faces short-term challenges from increased supply and slower absorption, the long-term outlook remains positive due to Jacksonville’s location, logistics infrastructure and available workforce,” Foundry wrote.
Jacksonville’s office market starts 2026 with more stability after years recovering and adjusting to the work-from-home movement that took hold in 2020 with the pandemic, according to a consensus of area industry reports.
“The Jacksonville office market demonstrated notable resilience in 2025,” reports the Avison Young commercial real estate firm in its office market report for the last quarter of the year.
“Looking ahead, the Jacksonville office market is expected to maintain stability as it moves into 2026.”
The Q4 2025 reports from area commercial real estate firms show sparks of optimism, such as lower vacancy rates and higher rental rates, which signal better market health from the landlord’s perspective.
Yet, overall vacancy rates range from 14.6% to 24.4%, indicating that tenants have room to negotiate for space.
Depending on how measurements are made, real estate firms found that Downtown office vacancy ranges from almost 15% to 30% on the Northbank and about 15% to 27% on the Southbank.
The vacancy rate among suburban office space is about 22%, with some areas doing better than others.
The real estate firms found that the average office lease size was 6,006 square feet, with the average for new leases and expansions at 9,239 square feet and the median at 3,500 square feet.
“However some tenants are still rightsizing their space needs as their lease comes up for renewal,” reported the CBRE firm..
CBRE found that six leases of more than 100,000 square feet were signed in 2025, the most since 2015. Of those, three were new and three were renewals.
It also found that overall leasing activity rose 37.7% year-over-year, with almost a third of that from tenants renewing their leases.
Several firms noted that one of the largest leases was the Internal Revenue Service’s renewal of 109,000 square feet of space Downtown in the 37-story 1 Independent Square.
The Colliers firm reported that “the demand for high-quality space remained vigorous.”
“In the final quarter of 2025, the Jacksonville office market presented a nuanced landscape defined by diverging metrics but overall stability,” Colliers wrote.
Colliers wrote that the most significant office project is One Tower Court Downtown, the multi-tenant building under construction that will be anchored by the Jacksonville Jaguars headquarters.
It is scheduled for completion in early 2026.
“The 137,000-square-foot facility accounts for roughly one-third of all active construction,” Colliers said.
Downtown will be challenged when Citizens Property Insurance Corp. leaves about 230,000 square feet of space as its lease expires at the 30-story EverBank Center 301 W. Bay St. Downtown in the Central Business District.
Downtown’s loss will be a suburban gain. Citizens is moving into about 220,000 square feet a suburban Baymeadows building at 8787 Baypine Road, west of Interstate 95 between Butler Boulevard and Baymeadows Road.
Another large suburban use will be Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s purchase and phased occupancy at the Merrill Lynch Deerwood Park North campus it bought in January 2025 from Bank of America.
ICE Mortgage Technology Holdings Inc. of Atlanta bought the 52.23-acre campus for its Mortgage Technology Division headquarters.
Colliers found that office construction remains constrained, with 60% of the remaining pipeline dedicated to medical office space, which average 30,000 square feet.
Cushman & Wakefield found that tenants “have been coming off the sidelines” to finalize space decisions as rents “normalize: and demand continues into 2026.
“The Jacksonville office market has shown improved fundamentals in 2025, with vacancy falling to 22.6% in Q4,” said Cushman & Wakefield.
“This marks the third consecutive quarter of decreasing vacancy, signaling a possible recovery in the market.”
NAI Hallmark said leasing increased at a measured pace while economic growth, return-to-work mandates and labor market fundamentals continued to drive the increase in rent growth.
In addition to One Tower Court as a sign of office growth, firms said that the increase in focus on riverfront and Central Business District development will lead to more activity Downtown, especially as Gateway Jax continues developing apartments and retail space int he NorthCore.
CBRE found that the Central Business District vacancy was 28.7%.
“While the CBD continues to drive vacancy rates higher, it shows encouraging signs for future growth with the activation of the riverfront and a robust development pipeline,” NAI Hallmark wrote.