Following several years of pronounced supply constraints the suburban Jacksonville retail market enters 2026 still defined by limited availability, but with clearer signals of what lies ahead.
While elevated interest rates and construction costs have suppressed new development activity for several years, some large-scale projects are now beginning to move from concept to execution, marking an important transition phase for the market.
Select major retail developments, such as Regency Centers’ The Village at Seven Pines project, have entered the preleasing stage, offering early insight into how major new retail in Jacksonville can be merchandised and activated and how surrounding retail demand and deal economics will be impacted.
At the same time, several other early-stage developments remain too preliminary to engage in substantive leasing discussions, as unanswered questions around timing and scope continue to slow project advancement and, in turn, delay broader market impact.
One of the most closely watched recent market indicators has been newly announced grocery-anchored projects. Recently reported Harris Teeter locations have drawn significant attention while industry discussion around additional national grocer expansion suggests the potential for long-awaited diversification within Jacksonville’s historically Publix-dominated grocery landscape.
If realized, these grocers and the developments they anchor could materially reshape surrounding retail dynamics.
In the absence of significant new supply delivery today, current retail inventory across suburban Jacksonville remains highly occupied. When well-located and desirable space becomes available, often before formally hitting the market, landlords are frequently met with multiple competing offers.
This environment allows owners to prioritize high credit tenants capable of absorbing today’s rent levels with minimal capital investment, leaving more rent-sensitive or build-out-heavy users at a disadvantage.
Looking ahead, 2026 may offer incremental relief for pent-up retail demand. Long monitored existing tenant vulnerability, including select fast-casual restaurant concepts, could introduce much needed second-generation vacancies back into the market if fallout does occur.
Combined with gradual new product delivery, this shift may progressively rebalance negotiations. Until then, suburban Jacksonville remains firmly landlord favored, reinforcing the importance of speed, flexibility and credit strength for retail tenants seeking expansion.
Pulignano is a partner and senior vice president at TSCG.
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