by Mike Sharkey
Staff Writer
Looking back, 2002 was an interesting year locally. Thanks to the Better Jacksonville Plan and its far-reaching impact, the area remained above water economically. There were several headline-grabbing layoffs, but as Chamber of Commerce Cornerstone president Jerry Mallot points out, many more jobs were created than lost.
The year wasn’t a total bust sports-wise. The Jaguars may have struggled with a 6-10 record, but the six wins exceeded most folks’ expectations. Depending on who you ask, the firing of head coach Tom Coughlin was either a blessing or a mistake. Only time will tell. Jacksonville gained a professional hockey team — the Barracudas of the Atlantic Coast Hockey League — and lost a professional football team — the Tomcats of the af2 League. Joe Cowart of AM-930 says 2003 will be a great year for sports in this town.
Politically, this year may go down as one of the most important in Jacksonville’s history. We’ll elect a new mayor for the first time since 1995. Six City Council members are gone — five are term-limited and Matt Carlucci is running for mayor — and 13 have to run for reelection. Two of Jacksonville’s constitutional officers — Property Appraiser Ernie Mastroianni and Sheriff Nat Glover — are term-limited, but are eligible to seek reelection thanks to a 2002 Florida Supreme Court decision. And, Supervisor of Elections John Stafford has come under heavy scrutiny the past two years. Finally, the Duval County School Board gets three new members and the seven-member entity will have to start considering some radical changes to help a system that many perceive to be in big trouble. Political analyst Bruce Barcelo says 2003 will be a “watershed year” in Jacksonville.
Sports
Monday morning Cowart said Coughlin would get his walking papers in 2003. He was wrong. Coughlin was fired Monday by Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver. Cowart, like many, believes who Weaver chooses now may be equally as important as who he chose in 1994.
“Dennis Green is a proven head coach that lasted close to a decade in Minnesota,” said Cowart, who co-hosts AM-930’s morning show with “The Guru” David Lamm. “What Green offers is an offense that set an NFL record for points in a season. Weaver needs an identifiable name. But, he’s [Green] not the only one.”
Cowart also likes Oklahoma coach and former Gator assistant Bob Stoops, but wonders if Jaguars fans would be willing to wait while Stoops learns the way of the NFL.
Regardless of who leads the team or the extent of their duties, Cowart says 2003 will be more successful that 2002, despite what could be a tougher schedule. The infusion of a new coach, draft picks and renewed community interest should all combine to improve this year’s 6-10 record.
“I think they can have a winning record,” said Cowart. “What the team needs is a spark and to put points on the board.”
Cowart also believes there’s the distinct possibility that Mark Brunell may not be the team’s quarterback for the 2003 season. A blockbuster trade could happen, but Cowart says there has to be a taker with something to offer.
“Cincinnati is a good example of a team that could use Brunell,” he said. “I can see them [the Jags] trying to shop him. They tried to shop him last year, but no one would admit it. Denver could be interested if they decide to let go of Brian Griese and an aging Steve Beuerlein. But it has to be a good trade for the Jaguars.”
The Jaguars won’t be the only ticket in town in 2003. The Suns will take the field in a new ball park and the $130 million arena will be open late in the year. Cowart says the entire sports complex will create a buzz the likes of which Jacksonville has never seen.
“As I look ahead, the injection of the ball park and the arena will be great for the community,” said Cowart.
The economy
Once again, Jacksonville was selected by several sources as the hottest city in the country for expansion and growth. And, the numbers prove it. Yes, there were some big layoffs last year with entire companies closing. But Mallot says those approximate 1,000 jobs were more than countered by a huge influx of new jobs.
“Three weeks ago, I looked at the numbers and there had been 11,000 new jobs created in 2002,” said Mallot. “Layoffs always bother me, but keeping it in perspective of overall growth, there were more new jobs created by about 10 times.”
Mallot said 2002 wasn’t a banner year — and the national economy supports that claim — but Jacksonville fared pretty well.
“I think, overall, 2002 could end up as a good year, mostly in the second half of the year,” said Mallot. “There was some hesitation on the part of businesses to move forward with the potential of war or the reaction to war.
“It was an amazingly good year [locally] in a very poor economy. We probably outperformed most other cities in the United States despite a very poor national economy.”
It’s the possibility of war with Iraq that will dictate 2003, according to Mallot. Like last year, he expects businesses to begin the year cautiously before aggressively pursuing new ventures. Although he wouldn’t divulge who they were, Mallot said the Chamber expects to make two major announcements soon. He also said existing companies are already planning to add staff locally.
“We have a couple of important announcements coming early in the first quarter, things that have been brewing for a while,” said Mallot. “CitiStreet plans to add 200 more high-wage jobs and they’ll have about 1,200 by the end of the year. Merrill Lynch continues to do well and grow and Cendant plans to add another 300 jobs.
“I believe we truly are at the end of the economic downturn.”
Politics
“Oh what fun it is to ride in a six, seven, eight horse sleigh.”
OK, the words are wrong and Christmas is over, but 2003 is shaping up to be one of the most important and interesting in Jacksonville’s history, going way back before consolidation.
With six declared candidates and two others hedging, the mayor’s race will be a battle of attrition. Will money — John Peyton already has a million bucks in the coffers — be the ticket? Will experience and political allies —Mike Weinstein is a long time friend of Mayor John Delaney (though Delaney has said he will support General Counsel Rick Mullaney if he enters the race) and another Ed Austin disciple — make the difference? Will Glover get in and if he does, what impact will he have? Can Carlucci cruise under the radar and steal the election?
All good questions with no definitive answers, but Barcelo gave it a shot. Barcelo says Glover holds the key. Get in and he makes it to the general election in May. Stay out and it’s a dog fight.
“If he [Glover] gets in, he’s the premiere Democrat and he starts with a tremendous base,” said Barcelo. “Carlucci is a well-known political name with a long and honorable history of service on City Council. But he’s lost before. Mike Weinstein is a continuation of the Delaney-Austin ascendancy and he’s their go-to guy. And, Peyton has a tremendous amount of money.”
Come on, Bruce, who wins?
“I think it’s going to be Mike Weinstein,” he said. “I think people like the last 12 years. I’m supporting him, so that’s a little bit of a disclaimer. Most of the candidates are friends of mine and Matt Carlucci is my State Farm agent.
“In a time of uncertainty, people want experience. I think the sheriff will run for mayor and he has the luxury of being able to wait until the last minute. My arithmetic is he [Glover] makes it to the runoff and loses in May.”
In addition to the guaranteed shake-ups in the mayor’s office, City Council will see some turnover. The question is, how much? There will be at least six new members and Barcelo said none of the other 13 incumbents are locks to be reelected.
“I don’t think any are dead, set locks. The voters are in a feisty mood,” he said.
Barcelo said it’s tough to determine which Council members are most vulnerable to defeat, mostly because, as he puts it, “Council races are hedge-run warfare. That’s neighborhood to neighborhood. What you look for are significant disappointments and I don’t know anybody fits that description.”
According to Barcelo, Council vice president Lad Daniels should take over as president when Jerry Holland’s term ends in June. But considering that last year, then-vice president Suzanne Jenkins was defeated in her bid for the job and the 2003-04 Council could have a very different make-up, anything is possible.
John Stafford should get reelected as Supervisor of Elections because as Barcelo says, “You can’t beat somebody with nobody” and right now there isn’t a viable candidate.
Mastroianni could run for reelection, but recent health problems may convince him that reading a book on the beach beats a 30-minute commute any day. Barcelo says Mastroianni’s decision doesn’t matter.
“I don’t think he runs, but if he runs I think he loses,” said Barcelo.
There should be a new sheriff in town regardless of whether Glover seeks reelection or chooses to run for mayor.
“This is an eight-and-out town,” said Barcelo. “As much as the people like Glover, if he runs for sheriff he loses. He promised in 1995 that he wouldn’t run for more than two terms. Boy, that’s hard to go back on.”
As far as the hot-button issues, Barcelo said the obvious will garner all the attention and deservedly so. After years of hearing how great a community Jacksonville is, Barcelo believes the locals will want to start experiencing that for themselves.
“I personally believe the biggest issue is a fuller and better prosperity,” said Barcelo. “People in Jacksonville believe they have invested a lot in the community. I think we’re conscious we’ve had it a little better, but people want to start seeing some dividends on their investments.
“I think education is a big issue, too. Ten years ago, people running for office talked like they were running for sheriff. Today, people running for office are talking like they are running for [school] superintendent.”