by Mike Sharkey
Staff Writer
Two years ago at the first Northeast Florida Regional Roundtable on Economic Development, the housing problems were more rumor than fact and gas was affordable. Today, the national housing market is a mess — but may have bottomed out — but the price of gas may be as low as we ever know again.
That said, you’d think Thursday’s third version of the Economic Roundtable at the St. Johns County Convention Center at World Golf Village would be all doom and gloom. Instead, the 500 or guests representing Cornerstone and its economic development partners in the counties that comprise the Jacksonville Regional Chamber of Commerce — Duval, Nassau, Clay, St. Johns, Baker, Putnam and Flagler — heard the message that resounds every time talk of a state and national recession comes up: the Northeast Florida area is doing well, all things considered.
“Northeast Florida has remained amazingly successful,” said Charlie Sloan, a consultant with Boyette Levy. “The area is recognized nationally as one of the best.”
That said, Sloan explained thanks to multiple economic factors, the competition among states for existing businesses to stay and new businesses to relocate is more fierce than ever. The status quo, he said, won’t work.
“The time to sit back and let things happen, if it ever existed, is over,” he said. “If you are standing still, the competition is passing you. There is a lot of competition. It’s all about getting on the list, staying on the list and being the last man standing.”
Sloan said there are two keys to Florida, and especially the Northeast Florida region, remaining one of the economic powers in the country. He said funding education at every level and creating a long-term economic development plan that addresses the future and global issues are both imperative.
Dr. Sean Snaith, the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness, also spoke. A consultant to both municipalities and private companies, Snaith mixes humor with facts. While he’s upbeat about the conditions in Northeast Florida compared to other areas of the state and country, he’s still blunt about the country’s near-future economic situation. He said 2008 started on a “horrible note” and said the sentiment in the media was that the country was “going to hell in a hand basket.” Snaith said the situation is analogous to the ancient mapmakers who relied on the stories of mariners to map the earth.
“As we started 2008, we were sailing into unchartered waters,” he said.
According to Snaith, the ability to identify an economic downturn isn’t identifiable until after the economy begins an upward swing. He said a recession can only be defined after analyzing the data from a prolonged downturn.
“We won’t know if we are in a recession for another six to 12 months. Will we have another recession? Yes, because business happens in cycles,” said. “Hopefully, this cycle is happening along with a long upward trend. The last two recessions lasted eight months. If we are in one and it started in January, then we are more than halfway through.”
According to Snaith, it will be 2010 before Florida sees the same job growth that made it one of the fastest-growing states in the country.
“Florida will have a $1 trillion economy by the year 2013,” he said.
U.S. Rep. Ander Crenshaw talked about the national economy, but focused on how the military presence in Northeast Florida assures the economy will remain relatively insulated from a major recession. He said the area’s military bases have a $12 billion economic impact.
“It’s hard to overstate the impact the military has on the local economy,” said Crenshaw. “This is not just the military, but the ancillary businesses such as the contractors and the subcontractors.”
Crenshaw said he is still pushing the White House to assign an aircraft carrier to Mayport, something he says is worth $350 million annually.
“That’s like having a Super Bowl every year,” he said.