by Michele Newbern Gillis
Staff Writer
Developers only need to look at the downturns in the multi-family, condominium and retail commercial markets to realize that this year will be worse than last.
The residential and commercial real estate markets are struggling and it’s not getting any better - yet.
That’s according to The Dodge Report, which was presented by Dan Downey of McGraw Hill Construction last month at the Northeast Florida Builders Association’s Commercial Council luncheon held at the NEFBA office.
“It’s not all good news - obviously everyone knows that,” said Downey.
There is some good news, though. It seems that some sectors of commercial construction are still doing pretty well including hotel, education, and healthcare construction.
Downey said he thinks it’s important that everyone know where the market has been, where it is now and, according to McGraw Hill, where they think it’s going.
“Are we going to hate the marketplace this year? Yes, but I sort of think we hate it right now,” said Downey. “The commercial construction industry is a trillion dollar business. It’s not a small business. So as we review the data, we see the declines, which are substantial, but we also have to remember that this is a very robust industry and it’s still robust.”
The tightening of the purse strings from banks is a major factor in forecasting a decline.
Bo Harris, also of McGraw Hill, added, “It looks like 2005 was our peak in the residential side and 2008 was our peak in the commercial side.The commercial side really hasn’t seen near what has happened in the residential side, but we are looking at declines across the board in 2009.”
Downey said in the commercial sector, certain parts of Florida are getting crushed, others are getting hurt, but in comparison Jacksonville has held up reasonably well.
Overall, McGraw Hill predicts an 11 percent decline in housing and a 24 percent decline in commercial construction in 2009.
More on McGraw Hill’s report is at www.construction.com.