As the Jacksonville Aviation Authority attempts to add nonstop transatlantic service at Jacksonville International Airport, a consultant has identified five cities in continental Europe, Iceland and the United Kingdom as potential destinations.
Campbell-Hill Aviation Group recommended that JAA pursue flights to Dublin; Frankfurt, Germany; London; Paris; and Reykjavik, Iceland.
The consultant, headquartered near Washington, D.C., chose the cities after a study that considered airport capacity, demand, load factors, revenue opportunity, operating costs and regional demographics.
Securing service from Jacksonville to Europe is a moving target with no definitive timeline, Campbell-Hill said in a presentation to JAA, which the firm has been advising since 2013.
Landing transatlantic flights also would be highly likely to involve public funding to bridge a gap between the cost of service and what would be relatively low passenger revenue compared with transatlantic flights from major airports.
The firm’s report is designed to help city leaders understand what it would take to land transatlantic service from Jacksonville, including financial investment, Federal Aviation Administration restrictions and traveler interest, a JAA spokesperson said.
JAA and city officials have been working more than seven years to bring nonstop service to Jacksonville from London. A 16-member economic development delegation that included Mayor Donna Deegan met in 2023 with more than 75 businesses during a week in the United Kingdom focused on promoting a nonstop flight between the two cities, according to a response to a 2023 public records request.
Campbell-Hill said Jacksonville competes with similar-size markets for limited international airline capacity, while supply chain issues, aircraft availability and regulatory approvals affect international expansion.
Campbell-Hill analyzed business connections, second-home ownership data and corporate travel contracts to understand demand for transatlantic service and identify partnership opportunities.
The firm said it uses U.S. Department of Transportation ticket data and cellphone tracking to identify Jacksonville-area residents traveling through other airports to reach international destinations.
Using those metrics along with a competitive analysis, the consultant identified the five cities as the routes that would draw the most passengers and be the most financially sustainable for JIA.
The airport announced in February that Air Canada will resume seasonal nonstop operations from Jacksonville to Toronto in May. The service will mark the return of the airport’s only international route. Air Canada ended Jacksonville-Toronto service for winter in late 2025.
“Our service is seasonal, reflecting market demand, which changes during the year with greater local and connecting traffic in the summer months,” Air Canada said in a Feb. 2 statement.
European traffic numbers
The Campbell-Hill report shows an average of 370 passengers traveled daily between Jacksonville and Europe in both directions, connecting through other airports.
By comparison, Indianapolis International Airport averages 490 daily passengers flying both ways, while Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport averages 563. Both are midsize airports with nonstop transatlantic service to Europe.
John Glenn Columbus (Ohio) International Airport, which does not offer nonstop service to Europe, averages 449 daily Europe-bound passengers in both directions, according to the report.
Across all markets, traffic spikes in summer and slows in winter, said Campbell-Hill adviser Kevin Schorr.
Attracting a carrier likely would require financial incentives, said Schorr, but federal regulations restrict JAA’s ability to directly subsidize international routes with cash. However, the airport can provide other support, such as marketing, waiving landing fees and offering counter space at no cost for two years.
Federal restrictions also prohibit biases on who receives support. Priority cannot be given to incumbent carriers with existing routes or using details such as time of day, season or aircraft type as criteria.
“It has to be non discriminatory and available to anyone who wants to take advantage of it,” Schorr said. “But we know certain airlines will take advantage of incentives for Europe and certain ones won’t. The same for Cancun, the same for Canton, for example.”
Schorr said communities often provide financial backing through cash subsidies and in-kind assistance from third-party entities, such as tourism agencies and private entities.
“It could be city, state, private enterprise. It could be a company that wants to help support service. It could be an individual,” he said.
A JAA spokesperson said the authority is speaking with potential partners. Schorr said JAA had a “defined” incentive package, but he declined to comment on specifics.
In addition to incentives, face time and creating a compelling narrative are key when pursuing partnerships because airlines have options, Schorr said.
“We always want to make sure the airlines know what’s happening in Jacksonville,” he said.
Subsidizing flight service
To attract a nonstop flight to Europe, partners in Indianapolis assembled a $19 million incentive package, including $17 million from the Indiana Economic Development Corp. and $2 million in fee waivers and marketing support from the airport.
In Cleveland, an $11.8 million package included $9.4 million from JobsOhio, along with contributions from the city of Cleveland, Cuyahoga County, Destination Cleveland and the Greater Cleveland Partnership. Both packages were for Dublin service by Aer Lingus, according to the Campbell-Hill report.
JAA is pursuing foreign flag carriers rather than U.S. airlines for international routes due to greater connectivity and scheduling flexibility, Schorr said. U.S. domestic carriers typically handle shorter-haul international service and maintain those flights at existing hubs.
Schorr said it is an “incredibly competive process,” during which many airports strive to start coversations with international carriers that often include talk of incentives.
Among its outreach efforts, JAA attends “speed dating” events, including the North America Airports Council International’s JumpStart Air Service Development Conference and the Routes Americas and Routes World conferences, to advocate for service to and from Jacksonville with multiple carriers, airports and tourism agencies abroad. JAA also holds virtual meetings with airlines and airports and attends annual airline headquarter events.
Securing international routes requires demonstrating strong business synergies between cities, mitigating airline financial risk and proving inbound tourism demand, Schorr said.
Companies that do business in Europe, including Dun & Bradstreet, Redwire, Paysafe, Revalize, Olympus Insurance, Nymbus and American Roll-On Roll-Off Carrier have relocated headquarters or major operations to the Jacksonville area in recent years.
“As the population of Northeast Florida continues to grow, so does demand for additional nonstop flights,” JAA CEO Mark VanLoh told the board Feb. 2. “To meet this need, staff from the Jacksonville Aviation Authority frequently meet with both incumbent and potential airlines to discuss domestic and international flight opportunities at Jacksonville International Airport.”
JAXUSA Partnership President Aundra Wallace said in a statement he has ongoing conversations with Deegan’s administration about the possibility of international service.
“Having direct international flights is a top priority for economic development and something we’ve been working on closely with the Mayor Deegan, JAA and business leaders in our community,” Wallace said.
“We have a growing number of companies here with a presence in Europe and direct flights abroad are a critical piece as we work to attract jobs and investment to the Jacksonville region.”
Deegan’s office said in a Feb. 25 statement: “Mayor Deegan fully supports the goal of launching a direct flight from Jacksonville to Europe. She hears from business leaders in Jacksonville and London who say that the lack of a non-stop flight is one of the biggest obstacles to growing business opportunities between the two cities. The city is committed to making a flight possible, including providing any necessary incentives while the market demand is established.”
There is precedent for indirectly subsidizing flight service from JIA. In 2022, the city approved a $1 million incentive for Breeze Airways to market its nonstop service to Las Vegas.
No upgrades needed
More than 7.6 million passengers flew through Jacksonville International Airport in 2024 (the most recent year for which numbers were available), making it the busiest year in the facility’s history, JAA officials said.
The passenger traffic volume represented a 2.8% increase over 2023, the previous record year, they said. An estimated 7.4 million passengers flew out of Jacksonville International Airport in 2023.
In October, crews completed the shell of a $344 million, six-gate, three-level expansion that began in July 2024 and will add 186,733 square feet of concourse space to the airport.
The project, funded by a combination of JAA money and Florida Department of Transportation and Federal Aviation Administration grants, is on budget and on track to arrive by December 2026, construction manager David Campbell, of Balfour Beatty Jacksonville, said in October.
American Airlines plans to use five of the six of the concourse gates, VanLoh has said.
No facility upgrades would be needed to accommodate transatlantic service to Jacksonville because the airport already has the infrastructure and customs capacity to handle European flights, an authority spokesperson said.
Schorr said he is optimistic but cautious about nonstop European service prospects.
“We’re in about the best position we’ve ever been in. Does that mean it’ll happen in a few weeks or three years? There are so many variables, and airlines are evaluating multiple opportunities,” he said.
“We can easily fill planes between Jacksonville and Europe, but carriers also want to see passengers traveling from Europe. Thankfully, the Jacksonville region has beaches, golf and other attractions that draw Europeans. We’re in a strong position when it comes to that.”
A carrier agreement would require JAA senior staff and board approval, according to the report.
Schorr said the cities identified could change as carriers announce new routes.