UNF survey: Jacksonville manufacturing activity still slow

But companies say they are optimistic conditions will improve.


  • By Mark Basch
  • | 9:25 a.m. November 12, 2024
  • | 4 Free Articles Remaining!
The University of North Florida’s Local Economic Indicators Project measures manufacturing activity.
The University of North Florida’s Local Economic Indicators Project measures manufacturing activity.
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Manufacturing activity continued to contract in the Jacksonville area in October, according to a monthly survey by the University of North Florida’s Local Economic Indicators Project.

However, the manufacturers surveyed expressed cautious optimism that conditions will improve.

The survey by UNF’s Jacksonville Economic Monitoring Survey produced a Purchasing Managers’ Index of 48.1 in October, the seventh straight month the index has been below 50.

An index below 50 indicates contraction while a reading above 50 signals expansion.

At the same time, the survey’s Business Activity Outlook Index rose by 2 points to 52, indicating more confidence about growth in the coming year.

Albert Loh, University of North Florida professor of economics and director of the school’s Local Economic Indicators Project.
File image

“More companies expect business activity to expand than to contract, suggesting that while demand has softened, businesses see potential for gradual recovery or improvement,” UNF economist Albert Loh said in his report on the survey. 

“This optimism is tempered by factors such as current economic conditions, election uncertainties, and potential logistical challenges, including delayed deliveries due to port disruptions,” he said.

“Manufacturers’ confidence, as reflected in this index, suggests that while they are hopeful for growth, they are also realistic about the mixed economic signals in the marketplace.”

Loh said Jacksonville’s PMI of 48.1 is above the national PMI compiled by the Institute for Supply Management, which was at 46.5 in October.

“The index reflects a mixed economic environment where softened demand and cautious spending contribute to a downturn in new orders, backlogs, and export orders, much like the national trend,” he said.

“However, Jacksonville’s output prices and employment indices held steady, indicating stability in pricing and workforce levels despite broader economic challenges.”

Loh said bright spots in the economy include the food, beverage and tobacco products; and the computer and electronic products sectors.

“While challenges persist, particularly with fluctuating input prices and demand uncertainties, the region’s manufacturers appear cautiously hopeful, aiming to balance cost management with readiness for future demand increases,” he said.

“The resilience of key industries and manageable supply conditions provide a foundation for potential growth should economic factors stabilize, offering Jacksonville’s manufacturing sector a path forward amidst an otherwise challenging national manufacturing environment.”

Loh said manufacturers were preparing for a variety of outcomes in the recent elections.

“Jacksonville’s slight expansion outlook indicates resilience but also highlights the need for businesses to remain flexible as they navigate both local and national economic dynamics,” he said.

“This cautious confidence in growth signals that Jacksonville’s economy may remain stable with potential for expansion, yet it will likely be influenced by external economic conditions and policy developments in the coming year.” 

 

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